Did we get enough value in the Murray trade?

[REHawksFan]

1 minute ago, JeffS17 said:

One specific thing I look forward to, and I hope we implement, is some Dyson Daniels PnR action that opens up his floater with Trae/Risacher on the perimeter.  Both Trae and Zach are excellent off the catch so any collapsing on 6'7" Daniels to take away the floater should open up the entire floor with an outlet pass.  He's a good enough passer now and I think he will improve as Quin will want to further unlock that part of his game.

This is why I think he'll get 6-7 ast per game.  He's a better passer than DJM is and can be a secondary playmaker (not in the same way as DJM but secondary ball handler/distributer).  He just compliments Trae in so many ways that DJM didn't.  I think / expect the trade to really unlock his offensive potential.  There's a lot there even before the 3pt shooting concerns.  

[macdaddy]

As long as DD can finish i think he'll be a positive.   We played pretty well with Bey even when he went into that horrible shooting slump because he's not afraid to attack the rim.  

[Afro]

5 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I think you and others are missing a very vital point in this discussion.  

It's not just that DD is going to get an extra 8 min a game.  Rather, the ROLE of DD is going to change completely.  I didn't watch a lot of NOP games this year but I have listened to a few podcasts with people that covered the Pels and they all indicated that DD was a backup player, used predominantly for his defense and not considered a key part of any offensive game plan.  He was probably the 8th or 9th option offensively.  

When I look at his game log this year, he attempted more than 8 shots SEVEN times all season while attempting less than 5 shots 31 times.  That's an offensive role that is more similar to Kobi Bufkin, Garrison Mathews, and Vit Krejci than it is to a rotational player.  The Hawks traded for him to be a much more significant part of the team - offensively and defensively.  It's not about his minutes increasing.  I think his FGAs will increase dramatically.  I think he should get 11-14 shots a game (similar to Bey, Hunter, and Bogi this year), a lot of those at the rim from Trae.  If his attempts goes from 5.1/game to 11 or 12 per game, his points can easily go from 5.8/game to 14 or 15 per game. 

As the roster stands today, the Hawks have lost 30 FGAs per game between DJM and Bey.  The only players we've added that figure to get rotational minutes are Risacher and Daniels with Nance getting much fewer.  Even if Trae, Bogi, Hunter, and JJ all increase their FGA slightly, there's still some 20-22 attempts per game that will be spread between Risacher and Daniels.   It's pretty easy to see Daniels getting 11 or 12 shots per game, imo.  If he shows absolutely no improvement whatsoever on his efficiency, that's 13.6 pts on 12 attempts.  And I think playing with Trae and in Quin's system will help him improve a bit.  So 15 or 16 pts, to me, is not that big of a stretch.  

 

He's going to need to shoot to get 12 shots and 15 points per game, which is the part I feel this ignores. And again, that's a big ol offensive leap to ask of him right off the jump. 

If he can't shoot, is he just spamming(and finishing) cuts every time he's down the floor? Is he gonna have the ball in his hand to drive on his own that much? 

I don't think it's unfair to say, that with his current makeup, he's far down the offensive pecking order. So idk how much I agree that hes going to see a good bit more shots while our actual scorers are only gonna see 2 more shots a game. 

[REHawksFan]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

As long as DD can finish i think he'll be a positive.   We played pretty well with Bey even when he went into that horrible shooting slump because he's not afraid to attack the rim.  

Shot 63% at the rim last season.  I think I saw that he shot over 50% on his floater which was somewhere in the 80th percentile in the NBA.  I think he'll be good finishing.

[Afro]

And just for maths sake, and Tbf there's a good bit of injury noise in here, but 12 shots a game over the entire season puts him with more FGAs than every body on the team last year but Trae, Bogi, and DJ. 

[AtLaS]

Do we know what happens if the 27 pick doesn't convey?  Do we then get NO's pick in 28 unprotected?  Or how does that work.

[AtLaS]

I can see DD averaging 10-12 ppg.  Hard to see him jumping up to 15 in the first year here but that would be fantastic.

I love that he can pass, and also JJ is a good passer.  We are building a team that can really share the ball.  

[Afro]

Going on per game, instead of total shots. 

JJ, Hunter, and Bey were all in the 11-13 FGA range. 

Yes, DJ and Bey are gone. But are we saying DD is going to have an offensive role on par with what those guys had last year, immediately? Everyone of them is far more offensively advanced than DD. 

Edited July 8 by Afro

[REHawksFan]

2 minutes ago, Afro said:

Going on per game, instead of total shots. 

JJ, Hunter, and Bey were all in the 11-13 FGA range. 

Yes, DJ and Bey are gone. But are we saying DD is going to have an offensive role on par with what those guys had last year, immediately? Everyone of them is far more offensively advanced than DD. 

DD shot 63% at the rim and 38% on corner 3's.  He also has a good floater.  

Are you really suggesting the only way he get 10-12 attempts per game is if he develops a 3pt shot above the break?  

Trae gets guys open.  There's also the PnR that he and Trae can do.  He can attack closeouts and finish.  Fast break opportunities.  

I could easily see:

3 corner 3s

2 open 3s above the break

4 layups from PnR or fast breaks

2 floaters

That's 11 and not all that unrealistic.  I think Quin is going to encourage him to take 3s.  To take shots.  I don't think he'll naturally just become a shot taker, but I think Quin is going to encourage it and want him to be aggressive.  Just like in the past he's said he encouraged DJ and Dre and Saddiq and other to take shots. Take the open ones.  We all know Trae creates open shots for others.  

[JeffS17]

23 minutes ago, Afro said:

He's going to need to shoot to get 12 shots and 15 points per game, which is the part I feel this ignores. And again, that's a big ol offensive leap to ask of him right off the jump. 

If he can't shoot, is he just spamming(and finishing) cuts every time he's down the floor? Is he gonna have the ball in his hand to drive on his own that much? 

I don't think it's unfair to say, that with his current makeup, he's far down the offensive pecking order. So idk how much I agree that hes going to see a good bit more shots while our actual scorers are only gonna see 2 more shots a game. 

I think it's a leap in usage more than offense.  He's also never played with a PG like Trae.

[AHF]

9 hours ago, SalvorMallow said:

From the dude who always lauds the importance of efficiency on offense, I'm surprised to see this post. Sure DJ took more shots when he was PG and therefore scored more points, but his eFG was 54.5% as PG and 53.2% as SG, Neither of those are great, I really don't see this super effective point guard that you are trying to paint him to be. Is he "better" as a PG, sure, but still has huge warts. He loves to ISO. He frequently throws the balls at the roll mans feet. He is allergic to contact. This isn't the slam dunk for NOP that you are making it out to be.

Surely you don't miss that the big problem with DJM was not on offense but was on defense, correct?  That is what the move to NO solves.  He will be guarding PGs instead of SGs.  If he didn't have some limitations as a player he would be a superstar but he does which is why he is only an excellent one who has been badly misused in Atlanta.  He isn't Trae offensively and isn't in the top tier of PGs but this is sour grapes to pretend like he isn't an excellent option at PG for a team where he can be "one of the gang" among other talented players.  It is a slam dunk upgrade for NO, imo.

Their two challenges as far as personnel imo are Ingram and McCollum.  Zion, Murphy, Jones and DJM are rock solid (caveat: when healthy).

[Afro]

10 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

DD shot 63% at the rim and 38% on corner 3's.  He also has a good floater.  

Are you really suggesting the only way he get 10-12 attempts per game is if he develops a 3pt shot above the break?  

Trae gets guys open.  There's also the PnR that he and Trae can do.  He can attack closeouts and finish.  Fast break opportunities.  

I could easily see:

3 corner 3s

2 open 3s above the break

4 layups from PnR or fast breaks

2 floaters

That's 11 and not all that unrealistic.  I think Quin is going to encourage him to take 3s.  To take shots.  I don't think he'll naturally just become a shot taker, but I think Quin is going to encourage it and want him to be aggressive.  Just like in the past he's said he encouraged DJ and Dre and Saddiq and other to take shots. Take the open ones.  We all know Trae creates open shots for others.  

Yall keep throwing out that 38% number but that was on about .6 shots per game. Come on now lol. 

He also shot 28% on above the break 3s with a little under 1 per game. 

This is a good bit of my point. A lot of this is just hope. Which there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, I hope for it too. But the thing about hope is.....the opposite of what you're hoping for is equally as likely. 

 

You're expecting him to double his shot diet(which is fair in Quinns system) while also baking in that more shots automatically equals more efficient. I'm not sure I see that as reasonable. At least not immediately. 

 

But just for datas sake on the rest of it. Jalen averaged 4.5 shots from within 10 feet last year. Thats part of my pushback as well. The offensive role y'all are laying out is basically just JJ from last year. IDK if thats a fair assumption. 

[Spud2nique]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

Surely

He does and..

[Afro]

16 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I think it's a leap in usage more than offense.  He's also never played with a PG like Trae.

Sorry reposting basically the same point, but wanted to acknowledge you lol. 

The usage that's being laid out is basically exactly the same as year 3 JJ. A guy, who for a good bit, was our 3rd or 4th offensive option. 

I don't think thats overly reasonable. We still have current JJ, Bogi, Centers, and Zacc to factor in at minimum.

I can easily see Bey level involvement, but again, he needs to actually be able to hit shots over a 32ish% clip. 

Edited July 8 by Afro

[AtLaS]

It's critical we trade Capela at this point.  We need a floor spacing 5.  It's going to unlock Trae and all the rest of the guys offensively.  We have to clear out the paint.

[kg01]

47 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

This is why I think he'll get 6-7 ast per game.  He's a better passer than DJM is and can be a secondary playmaker (not in the same way as DJM but secondary ball handler/distributer).  He just compliments Trae in so many ways that DJM didn't.  I think / expect the trade to really unlock his offensive potential.  There's a lot there even before the 3pt shooting concerns.  

A couple years ago, I noticed a workout partner of his that some of us thought would work well with Trae.  He was a size-y guard with PG skills and was a good defender.  Interestingly, the same name came up as a comp for Dyson.  It was Lonzo Ball.

At first pass, it may sound weird.  But, if you think about what Ball is at his best, that's not a bad add.  I think that's what we have in DD. 

8 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

He does and..

Finally somebody gets it right.  Kudos, squd. 

[Spud2nique]

14 minutes ago, kg01 said:

Finally somebody gets it right.  Kudos, squd. 

Hey, I just work for the people.

 

[ATLBob]

18 minutes ago, Afro said:

Yall keep throwing out that 38% number but that was on about .6 shots per game. Come on now lol. 

He also shot 28% on above the break 3s with a little under 1 per game. 

This is a good bit of my point. A lot of this is just hope. Which there is absolutely nothing wrong with that, I hope for it too. But the thing about hope is.....the opposite of what you're hoping for is equally as likely. 

 

You're expecting him to double his shot diet(which is fair in Quinns system) while also baking in that more shots automatically equals more efficient. I'm not sure I see that as reasonable. At least not immediately. 

 

But just for datas sake on the rest of it. Jalen averaged 4.5 shots from within 10 feet last year. Thats part of my pushback as well. The offensive role y'all are laying out is basically just JJ from last year. IDK if thats a fair assumption. 

The other assumption is that a third-year player is going to automatically get more opportunities and a larger role while learning a brand new system on a brand new team, a team that still has to find minutes for its own second year PG/SG, an extremely well established SG who will start over him, a 23 apy wing in his 6th year, a #1 overall pick rookie wing, and minutes for Gary Bird (15 mpg last season).

Please note, I’m not at all saying it won’t happen. I hope it does. I hope DD takes a leap and fits into this role many of y’all are projecting for him.

But surely we can recognize that such is well above a median projection.

This was not a trade for a starter THIS year. It was a trade to break up a backcourt that wasn’t working for financial (kudos), recoup assets lost in the original trade, and gain additional financial relief.

I think we pretty much all like DD and are optimistic about his fit.

Some are just making it seem like the FO targeted him as a starter. Again, maybe they did. Hopefully his play forces the issue, but that’s a tall ask when Bogi is this team’s second-best player atm (yes, we hope JJ takes that mantle and the ZR can acclimate and the shooting is real).

We’ll see.

 

[AHF]

FWIW, Mathews had a great second half last year but I don't think he is even a small factor in terms of Dyson Daniels' minutes this season.  DD should get all the time available that he can handle and Mathews should see a significant reduction in playing time from what he got last season, imo.

[deester11]

3 minutes ago, ATLBob said:

The other assumption is that a third-year player is going to automatically get more opportunities and a larger role while learning a brand new system on a brand new team, a team that still has to find minutes for its own second year PG/SG, an extremely well established SG who will start over him, a 23 apy wing in his 6th year, a #1 overall pick rookie wing, and minutes for Gary Bird (15 mpg last season).

Please note, I’m not at all saying it won’t happen. I hope it does. I hope DD takes a leap and fits into this role many of y’all are projecting for him.

But surely we can recognize that such is well above a median projection.

This was not a trade for a starter THIS year. It was a trade to break up a backcourt that wasn’t working for financial (kudos), recoup assets lost in the original trade, and gain additional financial relief.

I think we pretty much all like DD and are optimistic about his fit.

Some are just making it seem like the FO targeted him as a starter. Again, maybe they did. Hopefully his play forces the issue, but that’s a tall ask when Bogi is this team’s second-best player atm (yes, we hope JJ takes that mantle and the ZR can acclimate and the shooting is real).

We’ll see.

 

This is nicely done I must admit.  Kudos