When does Landry’s hot 🥵 seat 💺 start?

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I repeat what I said then:

I understood getting under the tax with the Huerter moved because it opened up the full MLE, it opened up more trade possibilities where we could take back more salary in trade and we got a first round pick. I said it only made sense if we used all those things to UPGRADE the team immediately, after going all in for DJM. But we did nothing but sign Frank Kaminsky.

It isn't specifically about Huerter but more about downgrading the team's talent when we pushed in on DJM.  Swapping Huerter for a MLE signing designed to make the team better or other moves intended to compete then would make more sense to me than trading Huerter for assets that would upgrade the roster years later.

[JeffS17]

35 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm unhappy we downgraded the talent on the team at a time we pushed all-in on DJM as the addition that would make us a contender and felt like Bogi's health was a big question mark. 

How is DJ in place of Heurter a downgrade?  Not sure anyone would argue Heurter is a better player.  And Bogi's health might have been a question mark for you but the front office had actual medical records and doctor conversations to rely on, not tweets.  So your judgement of his health question is completely irrelevant.

38 minutes ago, AHF said:

The hindsight that DJM was an abject failure is not a testament to the front office having insightful judgment in trading Huerter. It means at the same time they believed so much that we would contend with DJM that they gave up what we did they also felt that entering the season in a tax paying cap position was too much risk so that they were unwilling to get under the tax mid-season.

The front office certainly thought we'd be a better team.  They were wrong on that.  But they were correct in the judgement not to keep Heurter around, because their evaluation of him as a player was correct.  This is the judgement they were correct on.  He's not a contender rotation piece!!

 

1 hour ago, AHF said:

If their goal was to contend, they failed.  If their plan was to upgrade the talent at SG, they failed.  If their plan was to dodge the tax and get worse, they succeeded.  This is primarily because Landry and others supporting the DJM trade missed on their assessment of that trade.  But if you are buying into the logic of that trade, I don't think trading Huerter for a return that won't impact the team in a positive way until 2026 is a great outcome either.

Their goal is definitely to build a contender, but if your measuring stick only ever reaches into the next 12 months, yeah, they're gonna fail a lot.  29 teams will.  You're treating a trade for Dejounte Murray like it's parallel to the 2020 Nets bringing in KD and Harden.  The front office almost assuredly thought we'd get better (bummer we didn't), but you repeatedly putting words in their mouth that they thought we'd be a contender doesn't make it true.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

How is DJ in place of Heurter a downgrade?  Not sure anyone would argue Heurter is a better player.  And Bogi's health might have been a question mark for you but the front office had actual medical records and doctor conversations to rely on, not tweets.  So your judgement of his health question is completely irrelevant.

We added DJ and had both players.  Huerter could have played for us when Bogi was out instead of wastes of space like JHol.  Huerter could have been flipped for a player who could contribute in other ways.

The roster was downgraded because we removed Kevin Huerter and added absolute garbage in his place.  The players we received were so bad that we would have been better off getting back literally nothing.  

The pick was the real value and it was worthless during the next 4 years unless flipped for actual talent (which it has not been).

Quote

The front office certainly thought we'd be a better team.  They were wrong on that.  But they were correct in the judgement not to keep Heurter around, because their evaluation of him as a player was correct.  This is the judgement they were correct on.  He's not a contender rotation piece!!

I disagree with your premise that he was not a useful rotation player on a contender.  Steve Kerr was a useful rotation piece on a championship team and Huerter is a better player than Kerr was.  Huerter does a nice job spreading the floor and moving the ball.  That has value and improves 99% of teams in the league.  But if they didn't like him, they could have flipped him for value instead of adding worthless garbage filler players who were either cut or put up:

6.1 PER, .007 WS/48, -3.7 BPM, -0.2 VORP -- I.e., hurt the team when he was on the floor

Talk about someone who is not a contender piece.

Quote

Their goal is definitely to build a contender, but if your measuring stick only ever reaches into the next 12 months, yeah, they're gonna fail a lot.  29 teams will.  You're treating a trade for Dejounte Murray like it's parallel to the 2020 Nets bringing in KD and Harden.  The front office almost assuredly thought we'd get better (bummer we didn't), but you repeatedly putting words in their mouth that they thought we'd be a contender doesn't make it true.

First, only one team wins a championship but several teams are contenders.  It isn't like only one team contends for a ring.  IMO, any team with the potential to compete in the Conference Finals can be viewed as a contender. 

Second, I viewed and still view the DJM as a pushing your chips in move.  DJM was an UFA in two seasons.  The Hawks gave away control of their own pick from 2025-2027 making a rebuild impossible.  This is a major commitment with a ticking clock.  It was made because the Hawks wanted more than simply making the playoffs as they had done the prior season and wanted to go back to making deep playoff runs like they had done two years prior.  I don't see how anyone can dispute this.  I view a team that intends to get back to the ECF and take its shot at a ring as a team with contender aspirations.  If you view only 1 team in the entire league as having contender aspirations I think you are clearly wrong but in order to do so you must be using a very different definition of the term and from the way you framed this you seem to view a team aspiring to be a contender in a particular season as being limited to only the team that actually wins a ring.  I don't claim the Hawks were 100% certain they would win the 2022-23 championship after the trade.  I do think they thought they would be much better and back among the teams making deep playoff runs and contending for a title.  (For reference, I think you can make the case that at least Boston, Milwaukee, NY, Philadelphia, Denver, OKC, Minnesota, Dallas, Phoenix and both LA teams thought of themselves as contenders this season.  The only ones I would consider questionable among that group are OKC and NY.  Even removing those, that would be 9 teams playing to win a ring this year.)  

[JayBirdHawk]

On 7/8/2024 at 5:35 PM, JeffS17 said:

I asked them and they said if you're talking about a difference maker for contending, Heurter isn't it.  They told me he was great until he got ran off the floor in the playoffs.  Triple single contribution (9/1/4) on 35%/20% shooting.

16 consecutive years - no playoffs.

Kev arrives - playoffs. Light the Beam phenomenon. 

 

 

[MarylandHawk]

1 hour ago, JayBirdHawk said:

16 consecutive years - no playoffs.

Kev arrives - playoffs. Light the Beam phenomenon. 

 

 

Kev gets hurt. No beam. 

[JeffS17]

Concentrating talent into the starting roster isnt “downgrading”.  Its a funny position to take.  We traded an aging Gallo and Kevin Heurter for DJ and Justin Holiday.  Is the downgrade Kevin to DJ or Gallo to Justin?!?  

 

[Spud2nique]

Landry a nitty doh… always on that dizz

 

 

 

[Final_quest]

11 hours ago, AHF said:

Second, I viewed and still view the DJM as a pushing your chips in move.  

I think by trading Huerter for a pick back they signaled they were not exhausting every asset the franchise has for the upcoming season.  That was smart and prevented us from compounding the Murray mistake.

Four of the top five spending teams lost in round one.  There are other ways to show you want to win besides spending more than everyone else.  

There is a lack of appreciation for OKC type moves where you preserve long term cap and stock pile picks.  Trade Huerter when you know keeping him means $200M payroll immediately the next season.  Don’t get into situations where you are forced to cut players in desperation moves.  

Huerter is a streaky player.  Why risk devaluing him for a 25 game stretch when he could shoot 43%, but he could also shoot 25%?  Besides we started like 14-10 anyways.  The problems came later.  

[Final_quest]

15 hours ago, AHF said:

It isn't specifically about Huerter but more about downgrading the team's talent when we pushed in on DJM.  Swapping Huerter for a MLE signing designed to make the team better or other moves intended to compete then would make more sense to me than trading Huerter for assets that would upgrade the roster years later.

This is how talent downgrade happened

Trae        $7M  —>  $37M

Collins     $4M —>  $24M

Dre          $7M —>   $20M

Huerter    $3M —>  $14M

That is adding $70M to your payroll for the same guys.  Plus they extended Bogi and Capela.  Swapped Gallo’s salary for Murray.  

I constantly advocated for consolidating guys to avoid a talent drain.  When you pay literally everyone you’re stuck with adding vet mins and salary cutting moves.  

It’s easy to figure out why there is a constant whine to pay the tax and use an MLE or TPE.  No other moves available to add anything.  Problem is we don’t have the actual talent to justify doubling down on a roster with one allstar.  

To take this back to Landry he is doing something about our short term and long term problems.  We need a sustainable model where we have a system on the court and long term payroll strategy.  If you have a narrow focus that is limited to only seeing if Tony will pay $8M more on a MLE guy, your missing what is happening.
 

 

[AHF]

Landry better not deplete the talent on this team he is building around Trae to the point he runs Trae off.  We already have $30M in salary coming off the books next year but now I’m hearing we need to salary dump Hunter too.  Ugh.  I know we aren’t pushing our chips in now like we did on DJM but we do have a two year window before that key player is an UFA and don’t control our pick for 3 years.  We can’t afford to suffer a big talent drain which means all our young guys need to hit it out of the park if we keep trading  talent and converting a substantial portion of the return into salary dumping. 
 

Give me a dump trade followed by acquiring Mutombo or Korver and I’ll sing a different tune.  

[Final_quest]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

Landry better not deplete the talent on this team he is building around Trae to the point he runs Trae off.  We already have $30M in salary coming off the books next year but now I’m hearing we need to salary dump Hunter too.  Ugh.  I know we aren’t pushing our chips in now like we did on DJM but we do have a two year window before that key player is an UFA and don’t control our pick for 3 years.  We can’t afford to suffer a big talent drain which means all our young guys need to hit it out of the park if we keep trading  talent and converting a substantial portion of the return into salary dumping. 
 

Give me a dump trade followed by acquiring Mutombo or Korver and I’ll sing a different tune.  

Our salary dumps are tied to such weak talent that I’m not sure we have any place to go but up.  
What we do next is only slightly impacted by if we pay up to the tax line or up to the first apron.  It’s only $8M difference.  Harping on that part of the decision and being constantly negative is not even trying to understand what they want to do.

[JeffS17]

56 minutes ago, AHF said:

Landry better not deplete the talent on this team he is building around Trae to the point he runs Trae off.  We already have $30M in salary coming off the books next year but now I’m hearing we need to salary dump Hunter too.  Ugh.  I know we aren’t pushing our chips in now like we did on DJM but we do have a two year window before that key player is an UFA and don’t control our pick for 3 years.  We can’t afford to suffer a big talent drain which means all our young guys need to hit it out of the park if we keep trading  talent and converting a substantial portion of the return into salary dumping. 
 

Give me a dump trade followed by acquiring Mutombo or Korver and I’ll sing a different tune.  

We've gotta build up our assets before we can even make the type of trade most people here yearn for.  No amount of money spent on guys like Heurter or JC or an MLE candidate are going to have us in the mix right now.  Teams start paying the tax when they have the talent to warrant it (see below).  I do believe Ressler will pay it when it's time, but until we get talented core pieces together, we have to manage our spending.  So expecting him to make unprecedented spending decisions will definitely leave you disappointed by reality.

18 hours ago, JeffS17 said:

This seems the most appropriate thread to post some digging I've done for the tax related discussions:

In the East, there have been 2-3 tax paying teams in each of the last 3 seasons.  Some combination of Brooklyn, Philly, Milwaukee, Miami, and Boston.  Below are the situations each team was in before heading into the tax:

Brooklyn: The Nets started paying the tax in the 2020-2021 season.  They were coming off of a 7th seed, 35-37 performance the year prior.  They intially went into the tax to add Kevin Durant and James Harden to Kyrie Irving for their big 3.

Philly: Philly also started paying in the 2020-2021 season.  They were coming off of a 43-30 6th seed the season prior where Embiid missed 30 games.  They made this decision with a core of Embiid + Ben Simmons (at the time, an all-star, all-NBA, 1st team defense, DPOY contender) as their two best players.

Milwaukee: Another team that entered the tax for the first time (albeit, barely) in the 2020-2021 season.  Milwaukee was coming off of a 1st seed, 56-17 season.  Giannis + Middleton + Jrue core

Miami: Miami entered the tax last season for the first time in years.  They were coming off a finals appearance, looking to push the chips in for a ring, retaining their Butler/Bam/Herro core

Boston: Boston initially went into the tax in 2022-2023 season.  They were coming off 2nd seed, 51-31 season, inwhich they also made the finals.  Core of Tatum + Brown with Smart/Horford/White/Brogdon in the core rotation

Happy to go through the West teams too.  But when we think through the opportunities for the Hawks to go into the tax, does a core of have we had a core of players worth spending for?  Have we had results that indicate we're ready to contend?  Did we miss an opportunity to spend to win?

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, JeffS17 said:

We've gotta build up our assets before we can even make the type of trade most people here yearn for.  No amount of money spent on guys like Heurter or JC or an MLE candidate are going to have us in the mix right now.  Teams start paying the tax when they have the talent to warrant it (see below).  I do believe Ressler will pay it when it's time, but until we get talented core pieces together, we have to manage our spending.  So expecting him to make unprecedented spending decisions will definitely leave you disappointed by reality.

 

This seems like a non-sequitor response.  I'm not talking about paying the tax at all.  We aren't paying the tax this year.  We are dropping $30M in expiring salary next year and I don't expect us to pay the tax then either.  I'm saying we need to compete and be a playoff team both seasons.  Don't dilute the talent on the team in the near term through salary dumping trades to the point where Trae decides he no longer has confidence in ownership / the front office.  My read of the activity this offseason is we are building around Trae.  Given that, dumping salary to put us $15M under the cap or whatever at the start of the next offseason (assuming we don't resign Jalen this offseason) is not much of a benefit versus the risk of losing Trae by doing something like that Hunter for 2024-25 cap relief, filler players, and a couple seconds trade from SI.  

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Our salary dumps are tied to such weak talent that I’m not sure we have any place to go but up.  
What we do next is only slightly impacted by if we pay up to the tax line or up to the first apron.  It’s only $8M difference.  Harping on that part of the decision and being constantly negative is not even trying to understand what they want to do.

Same here.  Did I mention the word tax?  No.  I am talking about talent depletion impacting the 2024-25 season.  We aren't paying the tax.  We aren't going up to either apron.  Salary dumping Hunter doesn't take us from being a tax paying team to a non-tax paying team.  I worry that salary dumps of Hunter and/or Capela may turn us from where we are right now (a team that I think has a shot at avoiding the play-in) to a lesser team (one that is shooting for the play-in).

Part of the idea around building around Trae is that you need to be in two years in a position where you have his confidence so that he wants to return as an UFA.  I am saying I hope we don't salary dump our way into a position where he no longer wants to play in Atlanta.  I'm not talking about paying the tax.  (We already slashed salary with the DJM trade and have ~$33.5M in expiring salary between CC and Nance so I'm quite confident we aren't going to put ourselves into the tax.)

[Hawkmoor]

[JayBirdHawk]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

Given that, dumping salary to put us $15M under the cap or whatever at the start of the next offseason (assuming we don't resign Jalen this offseason) i

Resigning JJ this offseason, doesn't affect the cap this season but next.

[Afro]

Bump

[Peoriabird]

After that tweet

[AHF]

2 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Resigning JJ this offseason, doesn't affect the cap this season but next.

Right.  I thought that salary dumping Hunter's contract combined with CC and Nance coming off the books would open up about $15M in money to sign free agents next summer.  I may have been misreading a post or article on that, though.

[JayBirdHawk]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

Right.  I thought that salary dumping Hunter's contract combined with CC and Nance coming off the books would open up about $15M in money to sign free agents next summer.  I may have been misreading a post or article on that, though.

JJ's caphold next year is $13.6 mil. if we don't sign him to an early extension this offseason.

If we early extend him, his caphold would be higher. IIRC his caphold would be his QO salary, $6 mil + his new extension, assume $30 mil ÷ 2 which would be $18 mil.  

This is only used to determine how much capspace we'd have, if any.