Vegas Expected Win Total for Hawks at 35.5

[AHF]

33 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

End of december they were 15-18.   They went 17-32 the rest of the way.   I suppose they were just a really bad team. 

Teams only tank when they have something to gain from it.  Losing games doesn't do them any good other than improving their draft pick and when you don't own your draft pick there is no point in tanking.

[AtLaS]

To expand, let's look at the top offenses last year and who they had starting at the 5.  LAC is the only one who didn't have a stretch 5.

1. Boston (KP/Horford)

2. Indiana (Turner)

3. OKC (Chet)

4. LAC - No stretch 5 but had 3 elite offensive players in PG, Kawhi and Harden.  

5. Denver (Jokic)

6. Bucks (Lopez)

 

Notice a trend here?  

[AHF]

29 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I really like the starters 

Trae

Risacher 

Daniels

JJ

 

And the backups

Kobe

Bogi

Hunter

Nance

 

The center is open for the taking 

Risacher needs to be ready to space the floor if that is the direction you are going and Daniels needs to be ready to check stronger players at the 3.  Hopefully his listed weight of 199 pounds is no longer accurate.  There are a lot of 3's that will otherwise have 20 or 30 pounds on him.  (Hunter has 26 pounds on him on paper.)

[AHF]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

Risacher needs to be ready to space the floor if that is the direction you are going and Daniels needs to be ready to check stronger players at the 3.  Hopefully his listed weight of 199 pounds is no longer accurate.  There are a lot of 3's that will otherwise have 20 or 30 pounds on him.  (Hunter has 26 pounds on him on paper.)

As I've previously said, I expect all of our wings (Bogi, DD, Risacher, and Hunter) to play together at various times and all to get substantial minutes so I suppose these types of issues will be there regardless of who starts or finishes games.  Snyder should have the versatility to adjust his lineup to optimize the matchup.

[Atlantaholic]

If all goes pretty well with injuries, player development, the rookie showing up,  should be above the 35 wins... But this is the Hawks, so not gonna count on that happening. 

[macdaddy]

I'm still hoping for more changes but as we sit we have an elite PG, potential emerging all star at PF, #1 overall pick, lock down defender at the two and a smattering of capable vets.   We should expect way more than 35 wins and I'm not that optimistic.  35 wins sucks.  We had 36 last year and it was a disaster of a season.  If we aren't better this year then what the heck are we doing here?

[AHF]

6 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

I'm still hoping for more changes but as we sit we have an elite PG, potential emerging all star at PF, #1 overall pick, lock down defender at the two and a smattering of capable vets.   We should expect way more than 35 wins and I'm not that optimistic.  35 wins sucks.  We had 36 last year and it was a disaster of a season.  If we aren't better this year then what the heck are we doing here?

We should be better than last year for sure.  I view that as a low bar to clear and not a useful measure but we had critical gaps on the roster last year that seem better covered this year and had a terrible mismatch with Trae and DJM where we were better when only one of them was on the floor (and better with Trae than DJM) so we should be clearly improved.  If Fields puts together a roster that isn't better it will either be a sign a gross incompetence or the result of unanticipated and catastrophic injuries.  

While I think we clearly left money on the table, that is a far cry from gross incompetence.  So I am fully expecting a better team in 2024-25 than we saw last year.

[therealist]

vegas knows stuff we dont. maybe they're projecting a trae young trade we're not expecting? that's only reason i could see them projecting us with such a low win count

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

I'm still hoping for more changes but as we sit we have an elite PG, potential emerging all star at PF, #1 overall pick, lock down defender at the two and a smattering of capable vets.   We should expect way more than 35 wins and I'm not that optimistic.  35 wins sucks.  We had 36 last year and it was a disaster of a season.  If we aren't better this year then what the heck are we doing here?

I am still feeling unsettled with the team as it currently stands. There are things we have done to fix certain things, but I'm not sure we have exponentially increased our overall 'talent.'   It's on a wing and a prayer we hope that everything falls into place.

The certainties:

Trae and Bogi (healthy) check  ️ 

The JJ Experience ️ 

Hunter - I know exactly what I'll get  ️ 

 

The good:

- fixed our 'fit' issues with the DJ trade  

- fixed our POA defense on the perimeter with the additions of Dyson and Zacc, and we hope Kobe is also in that mix  

- we are anticipating that JJ takes another leap  

- increased our overall team height  

 

The questions:

- we are depending on Kobe, Zacc, Mo and Dyson to really exceed our expectations. ️

- I'm still concerned about our center rotation. CC is slowing and OO has been unable to take his spot ️

- I'm still concerned about backup PF (if we are trading Nance)  ️

- We have consistently struggled when Trae sits, we are depending on Kobe to fill that role. Based on his plethora of injuries, I'm concerned  ️

- I still feel we lack a toughness component, lots of thin mints ️

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, therealist said:

vegas knows stuff we dont. maybe they're projecting a trae young trade we're not expecting? that's only reason i could see them projecting us with such a low win count

Bear in mind that Vegas does more than simply give us their best estimate at wins and losses.  They are trying to get an equal number of bets on both sides of a line.  Usually that means setting higher win totals for popular teams (because more people are going to bet the over in general on them) and can mean lower lines for less popular teams.  I would think over/under projections don't suffer from as much of that as a Knicks vs Grizzlies game (where a perfectly balanced line would have lot more money coming in on the Knicks) but it might be a reason that they don't have us a bit higher.  Historically the Hawks have come in over in the vast majority of seasons when I've been a fan, although maybe that is more for ESPN type projections than it is for Vegas.  Not sure.

I do think it likely reflects the way neutral parties saw the DJM trade (with us sending out more talent in their mind than we got back as far as 2024-25 roster).  When we ended up with one good pick and one marginal pick coming back that makes sense.  We should get back less proven talent in that situation and getting 4 guys who were bench players last year isn't going to inspire a ton of confidence from Vegas, especially when two of those guys might not even play real minutes for us this season.

[macdaddy]

39 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

- we are depending on Kobe, Zacc, Mo and Dyson to really exceed our expectations. ️

- I'm still concerned about our center rotation. CC is slowing and OO has been unable to take his spot ️

- I'm still concerned about backup PF (if we are trading Nance)  ️

- We have consistently struggled when Trae sits, we are depending on Kobe to fill that role. Based on his plethora of injuries, I'm concerned  ️

- I still feel we lack a toughness component, lots of thin mints ️

All of this.   And these are pretty big holes.  basically question marks at every position.  This is why i think somehow we have to get a decent vet or two.

 

[AHF]

27 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

All of this.   And these are pretty big holes.  basically question marks at every position.  This is why i think somehow we have to get a decent vet or two.

 

The challenge is that can only be done by eliminating salary from the roster so whoever you bring in better cover for whatever you sent out and then add the additional coverage you are looking for.

[ATLHawks3]

35 wins is a fair baseline. That's assuming we're going to be unlucky with injuries, young guys not stepping up the way we need them to, our defense still being bottom 10 in the league, etc.

Anywhere from 42 -48 wins is probably the highest end outcome with our current roster construction.

[JeffS17]

2 minutes ago, ATLHawks3 said:

35 wins is a fair baseline. That's assuming we're going to be unlucky with injuries, young guys not stepping up the way we need them to, our defense still being bottom 10 in the league, etc.

Anywhere from 42 -48 wins is probably the highest end outcome with our current roster construction.

Agree with your expectation with the only caveat that its not the roster construction that is the issue next year, just the maturity and development of this young team.  I suspect this same roster 3-4 years from now could warrant a prediction of 48-55 wins.

[Spud2nique]

[Vol4ever]

We shall see.  

[Spud2nique]

7 minutes ago, Vol4ever said:

We shall see.  

Great what’s your prediction though 

[benhillboy]

If the Hawks have better than a -3 point differential 30 games in I’ll eat all types of crow with habanero sauce.

This is a Golden Era of players and competition underway.  Hawks simply don’t have the free spending, front office stability, or college style coaching to be notably relevant.  As every two-way dog ascends around the league (I’m pretty sure ZR will not be a “dog”) the Hawks will drop a little bit further.  Hell the Hawks got eaten alive last season by blatant one-way players like Luka and Hali smh.  Had all types of issues with the Hornets.

I saw parts of the replay of Australia versus USA though, I didn’t even know they played.  Dyson was giving Ant fits on a few plays I saw and he’s a relentless cutter.  Really liked what I saw on a possession to possession basis but the offensive aggression obviously needs work.

Edited July 25 by benhillboy

[REHawksFan]

2 hours ago, benhillboy said:

If the Hawks have better than a -3 point differential 30 games in I’ll eat all types of crow with habanero sauce.

This is a Golden Era of players and competition underway.  Hawks simply don’t have the free spending, front office stability, or college style coaching to be notably relevant.  As every two-way dog ascends around the league (I’m pretty sure ZR will not be a “dog”) the Hawks will drop a little bit further.  Hell the Hawks got eaten alive last season by blatant one-way players like Luka and Hali smh.  Had all types of issues with the Hornets.

I saw parts of the replay of Australia versus USA though, I didn’t even know they played.  Dyson was giving Ant fits on a few plays I saw and he’s a relentless cutter.  Really liked what I saw on a possession to possession basis but the offensive aggression obviously needs work.

This negativity gets really tiresome.

The Hawks had a -1.1 pt diff through 76 games last year and they were WAY worse than they project to be this year. But you think -3.0 through 30 games is reasonable? 

Come on now.

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

This negativity gets really tiresome.

The Hawks had a -1.1 pt diff through 76 games last year and they were WAY worse than they project to be this year. But you think -3.0 through 30 games is reasonable? 

Come on now.

Is that a per game or a total difference in point differential?  I.e., is that saying we on average have a net negative 3 point differential or an almost even differential with a total of 3 points to the negative?  

I actually read it as the latter but I am thinking Re is probably correct that this was supposed to be per game.  Last year was the first negative point differential we've had in a while and it finished the year at -1.8.  Last time it was -3 or more was when we won 20 games tanking under LP.  This would put us in line with the year end numbers last season for the 32 win Nets (-2.9).

I definitely have us being better than that, although I was overly optimistic this year for sure so take that for what it is worth.