Vegas Expected Win Total for Hawks at 35.5

[benhillboy]

36 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

This negativity gets really tiresome.

The Hawks had a -1.1 pt diff through 76 games last year and they were WAY worse than they project to be this year. But you think -3.0 through 30 games is reasonable? 

Come on now.

DJ is a 2.5 level scorer and Bey is one of the best offensive rebounding wings in the league.  Sure they have warts but this production isn’t easy to replace.  You can always block my posts too if the negativity gets to be too much.  Just totally glossed over the Dyson comments eh?

We’ll just see 30 games in.  If they’re as good as you think they’re gonna be I’ll gladly crown you king for a day.  I’m sure you understand we’re talking about a 1 lost possession difference right?

 

Edited July 25 by benhillboy

[AHF]

1 minute ago, benhillboy said:

DJ is a 2.5 level scorer and Bey is one of the best offensive rebounding wings in the league.  Sure they have warts but this production isn’t easy to replace.  You can always block my posts too if the negativity gets to be too much.  Just totally glossed over the Dyson comments eh?

We’ll just see 30 games in.  If they’re as good as you think they’re gonna be I’ll gladly crown you king for a day.  I’m sure you understand we’re talking about a 1 lost possession difference right?

You are basically talking about an example like averaging 113 points scored per night and 116 points allowed per night, right?  I will say that using the 30 games in qualifier makes your prediction a stronger one.  It is easy to see the potential for some growing pains with new players and a rookie in a key spot in the rotation that results in a differential you might not see on a full year basis.

[REHawksFan]

26 minutes ago, AHF said:

Is that a per game or a total difference in point differential?  I.e., is that saying we on average have a net negative 3 point differential or an almost even differential with a total of 3 points to the negative?  

I actually read it as the latter but I am thinking Re is probably correct that this was supposed to be per game.  Last year was the first negative point differential we've had in a while and it finished the year at -1.8.  Last time it was -3 or more was when we won 20 games tanking under LP.  This would put us in line with the year end numbers last season for the 32 win Nets (-2.9).

I definitely have us being better than that, although I was overly optimistic this year for sure so take that for what it is worth.

I definitely read it as -3 per game which is insanely pessimistic.  If it was -3 total, I don't really get the significance.  Why not just say net 0.0 or above pt diff?  

[AHF]

Just now, REHawksFan said:

I definitely read it as -3 per game which is insanely pessimistic.  If it was -3 total, I don't really get the significance.  Why not just say net 0.0 or above pt diff?  

I think he clarified you were seeing it the right way.

[benhillboy]

No one can convince me Quinn is a quality coach.  When the Pacers were up 30 in the final game and had Nembhard (well-deserved deal btw), McConnell, and Nesmith pressing inbounds passes and the Hawks weren’t really struck a nerve with me.  He doesn’t give a sh*t about this job he knows Atlanta is a football town through and through.

[REHawksFan]

For some perspective, the Hawks were 12-18 through 30 games last season and had a -0.4 per game pt. diff. 

@benhillboy is expecting-3.0 through 30 games. That's 8x worse. LOL

 

[benhillboy]

45 minutes ago, AHF said:

I think he clarified you were seeing it the right way.

-3 net rating, sorry for the confusion.  It was -2.2 last season, I don’t see how less than a point worse is outrageous.

[macdaddy]

43 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

No one can convince me Quinn is a quality coach.  When the Pacers were up 30 in the final game and had Nembhard (well-deserved deal btw), McConnell, and Nesmith pressing inbounds passes and the Hawks weren’t really struck a nerve with me.  He doesn’t give a sh*t about this job he knows Atlanta is a football town through and through.

Hopefully Quin can convince you.  He wasn't a guy i was pulling to get but honestly he looks to be what we needed ever since Bud left.   This is the year to prove a point in my opinion.   Last year was bad but the roster was crap.  At least it's more balanced as of now which should mean improvement.  If there isn't any then that's bad. 

[benhillboy]

19 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Hopefully Quin can convince you.  He wasn't a guy i was pulling to get but honestly he looks to be what we needed ever since Bud left.   This is the year to prove a point in my opinion.   Last year was bad but the roster was crap.  At least it's more balanced as of now which should mean improvement.  If there isn't any then that's bad. 

He has to show me he actually cares about defense.  Implore your guys to get up into someone.  Take a quick timeout if they give up an offensive board and score in a sea of red jerseys.  You can probably count on one hand how many 24 second violations they forced last season. Chew somebody the f$@k out when two guys leave a proven  shooter on a miscommunicated switch. That wave of the hand to get back up the floor quickly to try to “get the points back” just doesn’t do it for me.  
 

I think Zac and DD will help with the disconnect between the pace and transition defense some but still much more team continuity and leadership from him is needed.

Edited July 25 by benhillboy

[REHawksFan]

22 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

-3 net rating, sorry for the confusion.  It was -2.2 last season, I don’t see how less than a point worse is outrageous.

It was -1.1 through 76 games. The last 6 games count obviously but the -2.2 wasn't indicative of the entire season. 

And like I said before, it was -0.4 through 30 games last season.

Edited July 25 by REHawksFan

[AHF]

48 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

-3 net rating, sorry for the confusion.  It was -2.2 last season, I don’t see how less than a point worse is outrageous.

The two years before DJM arrived, we were multiple points positive in net rating.  His first year we dropped to near net neutral and then very net negative last season.  I am expecting improvement over last year with him departing and better depth than last season but this assumes we aren't salary dumping any more this offseason.  TBD on that.

30 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

It was -1.1 through 76 games. The last 6 games count obviously but the -2.2 wasn't indicative of the entire season. 

And like I said before, it was -0.4 through 30 games last season.

Obviously part of last season was that no one new was working into the rotation to start the year.  I am more optimistic than BenHillboy but I do think it is possible we will struggle some out of the gate with players learning to play together and Zac adjusting to the big leagues.  Hopefully we start strong but I could see a scenario where our first 30 games is worse than the rest of the season.

[macdaddy]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

I am expecting improvement over last year with him departing and better depth than last season

This.  I hate to say stuff like this and honestly hope i'm wrong but i think Murray is at his high point in terms of reputation around the league.  And honestly i'm not sure why it's high right now.  Feels like he got the flip side of Trae hate. 

[AHF]

17 hours ago, macdaddy said:

This.  I hate to say stuff like this and honestly hope i'm wrong but i think Murray is at his high point in terms of reputation around the league.  And honestly i'm not sure why it's high right now.  Feels like he got the flip side of Trae hate. 

I think he can be a good player on a winning team if he can defend PGs.  This year will be huge for his reputation

[Sothron]

35 seems low but I am tired of being over on the team just to be disappointed. 

We finally have some defenders at the poa at least. 

[Atlantaholic]

Out of curiosity how many times have Hawks beat the over since the ECF run?

[benhillboy]

The Hawks were 6th in 3s made and 5th in FTs made last season.  Those are playoff team-type numbers.  Do yall expect those to rise or dip trying to integrate two new rotation guys who aren’t the most aggressive with shaky shots?  I’m saying this with limited knowledge of what Zac did in Euroleague, Betclic Elite, etc (I’m sure the ball and distance is different?) but his shooting form didn’t look good to me in SL.

Edited July 26 by benhillboy

[JayBirdHawk]

7 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

The Hawks were 6th in 3s made and 5th in FTs made last season.  Those are playoff team-type numbers.  Do yall expect those to rise or dip trying to integrate two new rotation guys who aren’t the most aggressive with shaky shots?  I’m saying this with limited knowledge of what Zac did in his league (I’m sure the ball and distance is different?) but his shot didn’t look good to me in SL.

We are replacing DJs 3s made with Zacc and Dyson so we have no idea what that looks like yet. More importantly, what  I think/hope will happen is Trae and Hunter will have more attempts, and even Bogi. TAhe biggest jump should be from JJ.

Meanwhile Garri Bird still has a flame thrower, but he'll need more attempts.

[JeffS17]

12 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

The Hawks were 6th in 3s made and 5th in FTs made last season.  Those are playoff team-type numbers.  Do yall expect those to rise or dip trying to integrate two new rotation guys who aren’t the most aggressive with shaky shots?  I’m saying this with limited knowledge of what Zac did in Euroleague, Betclic Elite, etc (I’m sure the ball and distance is different?) but his shooting form didn’t look good to me in SL.

Dip.  But defense ++ 

TBD on the magnitude of both

[Gray Mule]

To me, the big difference in last season's Hawk team and this season:

Hawks had very good players that didn't fit.  This season, we're expecting this group of players to fit.

Hawks got taller and younger.  Defense is better.  Offense is questionable right now.  If you can't score, you can't expect many wins.  Perhaps we will be good at the offensive end.  The jury is still out on this.

[benhillboy]

A -3 net rating forecast is pretty hasty on my part, especially not knowing the first 30 opponents on the schedule.  I’ll drop it to -2.  Shout to @REHawksFan for calling me on it.