Vegas Expected Win Total for Hawks at 35.5

[kg01]

7 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

He didn’t fade it was Spo taking the ball out his hands for Terry f&@kin Rozier who I loathe.  Ware is gonna get all the minutes he earns, Bam will see to it so he can stay at the 4.

The all seeing, all knowing Schpo sees and knows more than you.   Fair?

He sees Rozier's greatness.  How can you argue? 

Also, fade is fade.  And he faded once film of him got out.  Periodt.  Encourage him to adjust to the adjustment. 

(And, yes, I can smell the smoke coming from your ears.)

[gurpilo]

1 hour ago, benhillboy dijo:

I take it you don’t like Bufkin as the BU, because that’s where he’s slotted.  I definitely wouldn’t have taken him with the 15th pick but the Hawks did and have to see what they got.

I think Clint is here on opening night.  The pool of contending teams willing to pay him to be a BU is slim.  The Knicks called, Hawks denied, the end.

Bufkin is unproven and injury prone, we need a veteran there, a reliable backup PG

[REHawksFan]

2 hours ago, benhillboy said:

I admire your optimism, just don’t share it.  You think Trae is gonna continue the much improved defensive effort we saw last year or revert back?  That is definately a possibility.  No one salivates over Dyson’s defensive box like I do nor discounted DJ’s impact more than I did but replacing his raw production will be no easy task.

I think Trae will continue to do little things defensively and give good effort. I don't expect him to get appreciably better but I also don't think he reverts back.

The Hawks won 36 games last year. But after 76 games they were 36-40 with a -1.1 pt diff.  They then went 0-6 and ended with a -2.2. I think the bigger sample size is more indicative of their season, which would have projected to 38-39 wins. 

In my opinion, breaking up Trae and DJ is addition by subtraction. I think that's worth 2-3 wins. 

I also look at the 2 biggest differences in the team between this year and last - fit and depth. I think the additions of defensive players with length is exactly what Trae needs around him. I love the fit of DD with Trae. Also with ZR and Trae. 

Now consider a bench that has Bogi, DH, Nance, and Clint. That's real depth.

I think between the better FIT and increased Depth, that will lead to 4-5 more wins. 

That's 6-8 more wins off of a 38-39 win pace. That's 44-47 wins. I'm saying 45 wins is what I'm expecting. 

As a caveat, I'm assuming we don't dump anyone (other than Zeller). 

[macdaddy]

35.5 is a crazy number in my opinion because literally no one in the east has won less than that in years that wasn't deliberately tanking.  And we know that Hawks aren't doing that this season.   It's almost impossible to be trying to win and come in under that number. 

[bleachkit]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

35.5 is a crazy number in my opinion because literally no one in the east has won less than that in years that wasn't deliberately tanking.  And we know that Hawks aren't doing that this season.   It's almost impossible to be trying to win and come in under that number. 

It's thats how you feel then place a bet my friend. Put 10k on the Hawks. 

[yungsta]

3 hours ago, macdaddy said:

35.5 is a crazy number in my opinion because literally no one in the east has won less than that in years that wasn't deliberately tanking.  And we know that Hawks aren't doing that this season.   It's almost impossible to be trying to win and come in under that number. 

The nets won 32 games and gave the 3rd overall pick to the rockets. I don't think they were tanking.

[benhillboy]

20 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

I think Trae will continue to do little things defensively and give good effort. I don't expect him to get appreciably better but I also don't think he reverts back.

The Hawks won 36 games last year. But after 76 games they were 36-40 with a -1.1 pt diff.  They then went 0-6 and ended with a -2.2. I think the bigger sample size is more indicative of their season, which would have projected to 38-39 wins. 

In my opinion, breaking up Trae and DJ is addition by subtraction. I think that's worth 2-3 wins. 

I also look at the 2 biggest differences in the team between this year and last - fit and depth. I think the additions of defensive players with length is exactly what Trae needs around him. I love the fit of DD with Trae. Also with ZR and Trae. 

Now consider a bench that has Bogi, DH, Nance, and Clint. That's real depth.

I think between the better FIT and increased Depth, that will lead to 4-5 more wins. 

That's 6-8 more wins off of a 38-39 win pace. That's 44-47 wins. I'm saying 45 wins is what I'm expecting. 

As a caveat, I'm assuming we don't dump anyone (other than Zeller). 

This is the depth chart ESPN has:

 

I see no reason to dispute the accuracy of it.  I saw you say in another thread “it doesn’t matter” who starts.  I would wholeheartedly disagree with that.  Games can be lost in the first quarter around the Association on a nightly basis.

[swanlee]

I hope the resolution of the mis fit between Trae and DJ simply translates to more wins by itself.

If our draft classes from the last 2 years actually get healthy we should be in fir a fyn ride. Zacch's maturity abd BBIQ should be a big plus for the team.

[JayBirdHawk]

31 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

This is the depth chart ESPN has:

 

I see no reason to dispute the accuracy of it.  I saw you say in another thread “it doesn’t matter” who starts.  I would wholeheartedly disagree with that.  Games can be lost in the first quarter around the Association on a nightly basis.

The only reason to dispute it is that ESPN is rarely right about anything Hawks related. 

[AHF]

I neither dispute it nor give it an ounce of credit.  It is just a guess from some staffer who is in charge of keeping up with the depth charts.  In many cases it is obvious but not for us at SG, SF, or C.  Could go either way at those positions and certain blends make more sense to me but that is just my guess.  

[RedDawg#8]

Regarding the depth chart, if it’s just based on experience and who’s most ready to execute Quin’s scheme then you would have to have Bogi and Dre as starters.

If you were going for a mix of fit vs experience then Daniels and Dre would likely start with Bogi as 6th man. ZR will have to earn a starting spot the same way JJ did last season. I loved 6/7th man Dre for us but ZR is both young and light, so I don’t want to bank on him being a 30mpg guy right from the onset if we are trying to win. 

Daniels is likely our version of OKC’s Thabo/Roberson to Bogi’s Harden or whoever the Spurs started over Ginobili. Dude is about to be the defensive leader at the POA that CC has always been on the backline.

Center is the real toss up as CC and OO can be interchangeable at this point. The combo of JJ and OO on paper doesn’t get much respect, but the analytics love that pairing together. CC off the bench is probably best for his reoccurring sore Achilles issues. Let him be more effective in short burn time.

I see Quinn starting the season with this lineup:

Trae, Daniels, Dre, JJ, CC

and finishing the season with: 

Trae, Daniels, ZR, JJ, OO, which is our long term core likely.

[JayBirdHawk]

13 minutes ago, RedDawg#8 said:

Trae, Daniels, Dre, JJ, CC

I don't like having Daniels and CC pairing. Not enough reliable floor spacing with Daniels who operates a lot at the rim and paint. CC will be a lane blogger for him and JJ as well.

If now is not the time to start OO over CC, he'll never start.

[REHawksFan]

3 hours ago, benhillboy said:

This is the depth chart ESPN has:

 

I see no reason to dispute the accuracy of it.  I saw you say in another thread “it doesn’t matter” who starts.  I would wholeheartedly disagree with that.  Games can be lost in the first quarter around the Association on a nightly basis.

No offense, but I don't give a single crap what ESPN says about the Hawks. They literally know nothing about the team. 

IMO, DD is the clear starter next to Trae. Bogi will play his usual min off the bench. 

It won't surprise me at all of Bogi is in the closing lineup. But to me, you play DD next to Trae as much as possible. 

 

[AHF]

18 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I don't like having Daniels and CC pairing. Not enough reliable floor spacing with Daniels who operates a lot at the rim and paint. CC will be a lane blogger for him and JJ as well.

If now is not the time to start OO over CC, he'll never start.

I agree that DD and CC are potentially problematic to pair on the floor.  I think it is a safe assumption that both DD and Bogi will get a lot of minutes and likewise that both CC and OO will as well.  Seems to make sense to me to pair DD with OO and Bogi with CC for spacing (for most of but not all of their minutes).

Snyder has some choices to make on how to mix and match this season if there are no major changes to the roster.  (Like I would not consider cutting Zeller to be a makor deal while trades involving CC and/or Hunter would be.)

[macdaddy]

On 7/20/2024 at 4:23 PM, yungsta said:

The nets won 32 games and gave the 3rd overall pick to the rockets. I don't think they were tanking.

Really?  I do.  They just traded their best player for a bunch of picks.   I suppose they were just really bad but either way this Hawks team isn't that bad. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

Really?  I do.  They just traded their best player for a bunch of picks.   I suppose they were just really bad but either way this Hawks team isn't that bad. 

IMO, they definitely weren't tanking when the season started and only traded when they figured out they couldn't compete as constructed and that they had no levers to pull to change that.  Why would they intentionally lose games?  They were just not as good as they wanted to be because they had too many role players and too few difference makers.

[macdaddy]

15 minutes ago, AHF said:

IMO, they definitely weren't tanking when the season started and only traded when they figured out they couldn't compete as constructed and that they had no levers to pull to change that.  Why would they intentionally lose games?  They were just not as good as they wanted to be because they had too many role players and too few difference makers.

End of december they were 15-18.   They went 17-32 the rest of the way.   I suppose they were just a really bad team. 

[NBASupes]

I really like the starters 

Trae

Risacher 

Daniels

JJ

 

And the backups

Kobe

Bogi

Hunter

Nance

 

The center is open for the taking 

[therealist]

5 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I really like the starters 

Trae

Risacher 

Daniels

JJ

 

And the backups

Kobe

Bogi

Hunter

Nance

 

The center is open for the taking 

man, having a stretch 5 would go a long way to spacing out that starting unit you're projecting

[AtLaS]

14 minutes ago, therealist said:

man, having a stretch 5 would go a long way to spacing out that starting unit you're projecting

We need this so bad.  I almost don't care if it's a downgrade in talent.  Where is Dewayne Dedmon these days? 

If we could get an Ayton, a Brook Lopez, Miles Turner, Horford, Portis etc.  our offense would be unstoppable.  Just someone who is respectable.  Is Vucevic really THAT bad on D?

I really hope OO can step up and steal that starting job.

Our guards last year were a good 10% worse on shots in the paint with CC on the floor than with him on the bench.  It's such a glaring issue for this team.  At least CC is still a good defensive guy and rebounder, but he can't be a 30 mpg player anymore, he just hurts us too bad on offense.  And he is the complete opposite of what Quin wants to do offensively.