Vegas Expected Win Total for Hawks at 35.5

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, benhillboy said:

A -3 net rating forecast is pretty hasty on my part, especially not knowing the first 30 opponents on the schedule.  I’ll drop it to -2.  Shout to @REHawksFan for calling me on it.

Well that's better I suppose. I still say it's more likely they are positive or just slightly negative than they are worse than -1.0. 

[BrazilianHawk]

I obviously don't wish a bad season for the Hawks, but 35 seems a bit too high to me. I don't bet but if I did I'd take the under.

I fully expect the Hawks to be really bad this season. Let's see, hope I'm wrong. 

[macdaddy]

2 hours ago, BrazilianHawk said:

I obviously don't wish a bad season for the Hawks, but 35 seems a bit too high to me. I don't bet but if I did I'd take the under.

I fully expect the Hawks to be really bad this season. Let's see, hope I'm wrong. 

But why do you think we'll be worse than last year?  Not much went right last year and we had 36 wins

[REHawksFan]

27 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

But why do you think we'll be worse than last year?  Not much went right last year and we had 36 wins

I don't get it.  Thinking we'll be worse off this year just seems patently absurd to me.  Last year the fit between Trae and DJ was terrible.  The depth was nonexistent.  And the injuries were significant. This led to horrendous defense and playing a bunch of g-league guys a ton of minutes.   

This year, the fit between Trae and DD or Trae and ZR is MUCH better on paper.  The defense is LIGHTYEARS better.  The depth is significantly better (potential for Bogi/Hunter/Nance/Clint all off the bench) barring some sort of salary dump. And injuries are always an unknown but it's hard to imagine Trae will miss another 20+ games since he's been very healthy his whole career. 

All in all, it seems OBVIOUS that the team is better.  How much better seems to be the question that is worth debating.  I'm thinking they win 45 games as currently constituted.     

[REHawksFan]

If folks want to compare this upcoming team to years past, instead of using last year's squad, a better measure, imo, is the last year without DJM.  That was a team where Trae was the clear offensive engine and everything really revolved around him.  

So what did  that team look like?  Well, here was the Top 10 by Min Played in 21-22. 

Trae/Huerter/Hunter/JC/Clint

Delon/Lou/Bogi/Gallo/OO

This was a team that won 43 games and finished 8th in the east.  They were 2nd in the NBA in OffRtg and 26th in DefRtg.  They were ELITE offensively and terrible defensively.  Yes, they were embarrassed by Miami which led to the DJM trade, but that had more to do with injuries to the big men than it did the lack of secondary ball handler.  

So let's compare the above team to the current team:

Trae/DD/Hunter/JJ/OO

Kobe/Bogi/ZR/Nance/Clint

 

Starters

Trae now vs Trae then  EDGE:  Trae Now is better

DD vs Huerter EDGE: DD (Per36 - KH avg  14.7/4.2/3.3 while DD avg 9.4/6.3/4.3 , also DD is WAY better defender) 

Hunter now vs Hunter then  EDGE:   Hunter Now is better

JJ vs JC  EDGE:   Wash (I think JJ is almost as good or better than JC was in 21; especially so if he takes another step)

OO vs CC  Edge:   Clint (Until we see it from OO, I have to give vintage Clint the edge)

Bench

Kobe vs Delon  EDGE: Delon by a lot (Kobe has the talent but not near the experience)

Bogi vs Bogi  EDGE:  Wash; Bogi is Bogi and it largely depends on health

ZR vs Lou  EDGE:  Lou by a lot (same as for Kobe, Zacc has a ton of talent, but no experience)

Nance vs Gallo  EDGE:  Gallo by a good bit (Nance isn't the threat offensively that Gallo was, but he's a FAR better defender)

CC vs OO  EDGE:  Clint by a good bit (I still think Clint has something in the tank and is probably a better backup than OO was)

 

Overall, in my opinion, the Starters this upcoming year are a good bit better than the starters in the 21-22 season, but the bench is not quite as good.  But the biggest factor, imo, is the upcoming team is FAR more balanced between offense and defense.  This year's team may not end up 2nd in the NBA offensively, but they will be a lot better than 26th defensively as well. 

So overall, I'd say we are probably a few games better than that squad was.  Considering that team won 43 games, I think it's pretty obvious that this upcoming team isn't going to win 35 or fewer games unless something goes HORRIBLY wrong.  

[Spud2nique]

35 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I don't get it.

It’s ok. Eventually. 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

ZR vs Lou  EDGE:  Lou by a lot (same as for Kobe, Zacc has a ton of talent, but no experience)

 

I'm not going to nitpick your take which was overall I think pretty darn good.  But I do have to say this one jumped off the page for me.  If Lou is even a little bit better than Zac then Zac will have had a disastrous rookie season.

Lou was a garbage defender and someone whose value was almost entirely a product of his scoring

That season Lou averaged 6.3 points on 39.3% FG% which translated into a garbage .500% TS%.  Beyond that crappy scoring, he added 1.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.8 turnovers per game.

He ranked 12th on the team in PER (10th in you exclude Cameron Oliver and Malcom Hill who would rank above him but were very low minutes played), 17th in WS/48 with a 0.034 (13th if you exclude CO, MH, Wes Iwundu, and Chandee Brown), 15th in BPM with a -3.4 (13th excluding our low minute players), and 23rd in VORP with a -0.3 (17th excluding the low minute players).

Again, if Risacher doesn't curb stomp that production into the dirt then I am saying here and now he will have made the strongest of cases that he was a mistake to take at #1 and had a burning dumpster fire of a rookie season.

Lou was not rotation worthy that season.  Part of the appeal of Risacher is that he is an experienced pro and is ready to play on day 1 even if he isn't necessarily ready to start.  Risacher better be rotation worthy as a rookie.  I fully expect him to be.

[REHawksFan]

33 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm not going to nitpick your take which was overall I think pretty darn good.  But I do have to say this one jumped off the page for me.  If Lou is even a little bit better than Zac then Zac will have had a disastrous rookie season.

Lou was a garbage defender and someone whose value was almost entirely a product of his scoring

That season Lou averaged 6.3 points on 39.3% FG% which translated into a garbage .500% TS%.  Beyond that crappy scoring, he added 1.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.8 turnovers per game.

He ranked 12th on the team in PER (10th in you exclude Cameron Oliver and Malcom Hill who would rank above him but were very low minutes played), 17th in WS/48 with a 0.034 (13th if you exclude CO, MH, Wes Iwundu, and Chandee Brown), 15th in BPM with a -3.4 (13th excluding our low minute players), and 23rd in VORP with a -0.3 (17th excluding the low minute players).

Again, if Risacher doesn't curb stomp that production into the dirt then I am saying here and now he will have made the strongest of cases that he was a mistake to take at #1 and had a burning dumpster fire of a rookie season.

Lou was not rotation worthy that season.  Part of the appeal of Risacher is that he is an experienced pro and is ready to play on day 1 even if he isn't necessarily ready to start.  Risacher better be rotation worthy as a rookie.  I fully expect him to be.

Yikes.  I stand corrected.  I didn't look up Lou's stats and I will admit my memory of him is probably skewed a bit as he was always a favorite of mine off the bench.  

I will say though that I don't have super high expectations for ZR.  Higher than what Lou apparently provided for sure, but not super high overall.  If he just has an impact defensively and shoots 38%+ from 3pt, I'll be happy.  

[Gray Mule]

I'll admit it.  I'm usually the most optimistic poster on the Squawk.  I expect this Hawk team, if they can stay healthy, to break that .500% ceiling.  This has to mean more than 41 victories!

Dyson Daniels will shine.  Zacc Risacher will slowly grow into an important part of team Hawks.  Trae will be Trae.  JJ will continue to grow as a fan favorite.  0017 must become what Spud thought he was when he was drafted.  This is a pretty good starting five.  Hawks have enough players left over to have a nice bench.

[AHF]

1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

If he just has an impact defensively and shoots 38%+ from 3pt, I'll be happy.  

That feels like a realistic baseline expectation for this season.  Hoping for more but if he delivers on that nobody can be too upset.