I really like this squad for 2024-25

[Dragitoff]

11 minutes ago, AtLaS said:

Great writeup and I agree.  I was not that bullish on the Hawks before last season, this season I am much more bullish considering our depth at the wing and bigs.  I'm betting on 45+ wins, assuming Trae plays 70+ games.

Last year, we had zero PF depth so anytime JJ was out the team died.  This year it's different.

If a wing gets hurt we have a TON of depth.  And if two wings get hurt we can play Mathews/Kritchi which are pretty good in their role.

Having Hunter, Bogi and one of CC/OO off the bench is insane.  That may be the best bench in the NBA.  We will go on big runs when other teams starters are off the floor.  What if Kobe takes a step up too?

My biggest worry is PG, if Trae misses any time we are in trouble.  Last year we had DJ so Trae getting hurt didn't sting as much since we had an all-star to replace him.  Without DJ the Hawks probably would've gone 5-20 with Trae injured.  I know DD can run some point but not for a full game.  I wouldn't trust DD/Kobe to be the PG all game long, that's going to be difficult.  Right now the only other option is Wallace and we are screwed if he is playing.

I still want to trade CC b/c his lack of floor spacing or ability to put the ball on the floor kills this offense in so many ways.  The entire teams FG% around the basket increases with him off the floor.  Ayton would help us so much IMO.

 

 

While Trae is arguably the best PG in the league so losing him will hurt, but one thing that helps us is let's say DD is the starting SG with Trae.  If Trae gets hurt, I see Bogi stepping into the starting SG spot and DD sliding over to PG.  Bogi is such a good facilitator himself, I think the offense would be better than we might think despite losing a talent like Trae.  Clearly the team is deeper and better with him so I'm not starting the whole trade Trae thing (I've always been against that).  That's part of what I like about this team.  We have the personnel to be a team that truly shares the ball and can beat you a number of ways rather than the old Hawks teams of recent memory had to score well to win. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, therealist said:

i agree 100%. i think trae has a little too much mamba in him to consistently do this though. at least right now. you can tell he doesn't want to pass at the end of games. he wants to prove guys like us wrong who don't think he can be an elite closer. but even if that is the case, there's nothing saying he can't change with the right voices in his ear.

that being said, i have no idea what goes on in his head or in meetings with team/coaches. i could be talking about my a$$ completely. it's just what it looks like to me

Even the Mamba wasn't actually very good in the clutch compared to the team's normal offense.  Iso scoring when the defense is ready and keyed up for it is just rarely the best option for even HOF players.  Working the play to get mismatches, etc. can make it much better but the special challenge for Trae is that he isn't someone who can use his physical tools to overwhelm people.  He needs to overcome the gap between his physical tools and the guy guarding him (who is often longer and more athletic) with his craft and he is amazing at that but it is best when used to create great looks for him or his teammates as opposed to the "dribble back and forth and launch a contest 3" kind of shot.  He can make those.  Sometimes.  But we would be so much better off with some other action being the top option(s).

[Wretch]

On 8/5/2024 at 8:01 AM, bleachkit said:

Who is going to be our third scorer after Trae and JJ? And is JJ ready to be a 20+ scorer? Overall I'm not bullish on this team. I think we will be better defensively though. 

On 8/5/2024 at 1:04 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

I'm usually on the optimistic side in years past. This year, not so much. Maybe this is just me reverse jinxing myself.

I think we've addressed overall fit, size, depth and defense but not necessarily the overall talent. 

Too many things have to go exactly right, expectations of a young squad to be exceeded and in the end, the burden of the offense still depends on Trae to drag everyone up.

I hope I'm wrong in how I 'feel' about this team. After preseason, I'll have a better feel and set my expectations accordingly.

8 hours ago, AHF said:

[...] he is amazing at that but it is best when used to create great looks for him or his teammates as opposed to the "dribble back and forth and launch a contest 3" kind of shot.  He can make those.  Sometimes.  But we would be so much better off with some other action being the top option(s).

All of this is precisely where I'm at...but with Trae's free agency as an undeniable undercurrent.  I'm in wait and see mode and have absolutely no real opinion on our actual potential this season.

[TheFuzz]

I suspect our record will be about .500 again, but DD, ZR, JJ and the Lakers pick gives some room for optimism about the future surrounding Trae

[Gray Mule]

Apparently ESPN really likes the Hawks too!  They project a record of 31-51 for the season and another play-in finish in 10th place.  Eather all the other eastern conference teams are vastly improved, or Atlanta will be worse than last season.  Maybe both!

ESPN and their guesstimate of 31-51 is much worse than my own guess of 42-40.  Where did I go so terribly wrong?

 

[REHawksFan]

ESPN is garbage.  31 wins?  Really?  I still say 45 wins is the conservative estimate barring catastrophic injuries (ie Trae goes down). 

 

  

[kg01]

1 minute ago, REHawksFan said:

ESPN is garbage.  31 wins?  Really?  I still say 45 wins is the conservative estimate barring catastrophic injuries (ie Trae goes down). 

Yeah but, if the Hawks win that many games, how are the Lakers gonna get all their players for cheap?

[macdaddy]

I'm optimistic for these reasons

DJ - addition by subtraction.  nothing against him but we were better before he got here

DD - entering his prime, elite defense

Zacc - i think he's ready to play and brings all sorts of intangibles we haven't had with Trae

Nance - at least we have a real backup at the 4 this year.   Lack of depth there killed our season last year. 

My biggest concern is lack of a secondary scorer.  JJ is unproven in that dept but our best hope.   Bogi, Hunter are shooters not scorers.  We need our Lou Will or Gallo.  Maybe Kobe steps up or Zacc but we have to have that bucket getter somewhere. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, REHawksFan said:

ESPN is garbage.  31 wins?  Really?  I still say 45 wins is the conservative estimate barring catastrophic injuries (ie Trae goes down). 

 

  

To put 45 wins near the bottom of the range is more aggressive than I am but 31 is crazy low.  Nothing new for ESPN projections, though.  I'd love to be able to put some money on 31 as an over/under.

[bird_dirt]

22 hours ago, macdaddy said:

I'm optimistic for these reasons

DJ - addition by subtraction.  nothing against him but we were better before he got here

DD - entering his prime, elite defense

Zacc - i think he's ready to play and brings all sorts of intangibles we haven't had with Trae

Nance - at least we have a real backup at the 4 this year.   Lack of depth there killed our season last year. 

My biggest concern is lack of a secondary scorer.  JJ is unproven in that dept but our best hope.   Bogi, Hunter are shooters not scorers.  We need our Lou Will or Gallo.  Maybe Kobe steps up or Zacc but we have to have that bucket getter somewhere. 

I’m optimistic that pieces will fit better, but to me these new players are floor raisers, not ceiling raisers.
I think this is a 36-40 win team, so I’ll split the difference and guess 38-44 record. 
Our chances of getting enough wins to skip past the play-in spots with this roster will come in a year or two from young player growth. 
I think they’ll need to pull off a trade using some combo of CC, OO, Bogi, and/or Dre to bring in a bigger needle mover to do anything serious this season. 

[FL_BRYANT]

This team would have a tough time winning even if we had Jokic in the middle. The roster is full of average ballplayers who haven't proven themselves. It amazes me how average ballplayers become stars  in the eyes of our fanbase once they are acquired by the Hawks. This team has no hope of being the second best team in the eastern division nor is our bench one of the best in the league.  It is fine to be optimistic at the beginning of a new year but we didn't add Anthony Edwards or Wemby.  We didn't add an allstar level ballplayer we added DD and ZR while removing DJM .  I  hope Quin can work some magic with this squad but as currently configured all I see is a team fighting to make the play in. We have no idea what we have in DD and ZR so let's pump the brakes on the exuberance and enjoy the development of the team this season and the next few years. This is going to take some time and it may look very different when we do compete than it does now.

Having traded away our draft picks the front office will have a tough job turning this team around. Embrace the process, it's going to be a minute.

[RedDawg#8]

One thing to keep in mind when projecting year to year results is how injury riddled we were last season. Just our 2 best players Trae and JJ only played 54 and 56 games respectively last season. That’s 1/3 of the season missed by the 2 players we deem untouchable. Then you add key players like OO and Dre who only played 55 & 57 games. Bey only played 63. 

If they were to play something like 70 games next year you would have to admit that adds a few more wins over the course of the season even without comparing additions subtractions. 5 more wins in an injury riddled season has us .500.

Lets remember, we defeated nearly every top contender at least once last season while being shorthanded. We defeated the NBA Champs twice in a week without our best player. This is not a locker toon devoid of talent or good coaching. We just couldn’t find any consistency with our lineups due to the injury bug. We had GMathews and Vit playing major minutes on a nightly basis. We only had (1) healthy PF available for a majority of games. Those are real issues that we played through that have nothing to due with locker room/coaching/lack of talent narratives. 

Now we when talk about the roster, new player fits, experience for young guys, etc… and it doesn’t seem that far fetched that our floor is actually much higher than where we finished last season. The biggest weakness on the court (defense) and analytically speaking (Trae-DJ pairing) have been addressed.

We will be a very tough out next season. Just wait. The talent gap in our division is not that big. The East will be distracted with Bos/Philly/NYK and we will fly under the radar to a top 6 record at worst.
 

 

 

[Final_quest]

21 hours ago, bird_dirt said:

I’m optimistic that pieces will fit better, but to me these new players are floor raisers, not ceiling raisers.
I think this is a 36-40 win team, so I’ll split the difference and guess 38-44 record. 
Our chances of getting enough wins to skip past the play-in spots with this roster will come in a year or two from young player growth. 
I think they’ll need to pull off a trade using some combo of CC, OO, Bogi, and/or Dre to bring in a bigger needle mover to do anything serious this season. 

Pretty fair take on the record.  I see us as a play in team unless some unexpected chemistry magic develops.  Trae as a top offensive engine.  Dyson will have to emerge quickly as a top 5 defender.  Risacher, Jalen, and Kobe would need to take some significant leaps.  

I don't think they have any plans to trade Bogi.  He brings way too many dimensions we need with shooting and secondary playmaking. 

I think people have had unrealistic expectations on what CC and Hunter can bring back in a trade for quite a while.  Needle mover?  Would need to attach some draft picks to one or both of them to get a true needle mover, but we have that option if an opportunity develops. 

 

[Final_quest]

On 8/21/2024 at 10:32 AM, macdaddy said:

I'm optimistic for these reasons

DJ - addition by subtraction.  nothing against him but we were better before he got here

DD - entering his prime, elite defense

Zacc - i think he's ready to play and brings all sorts of intangibles we haven't had with Trae

Nance - at least we have a real backup at the 4 this year.   Lack of depth there killed our season last year. 

My biggest concern is lack of a secondary scorer.  JJ is unproven in that dept but our best hope.   Bogi, Hunter are shooters not scorers.  We need our Lou Will or Gallo.  Maybe Kobe steps up or Zacc but we have to have that bucket getter somewhere. 

Indiana had the top offense without a true secondary scorer before they traded for Siakam.  I do think that Bogi has developed into more than a shooter and can function as a secondary scorer. 

[kg01]

3 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

One thing to keep in mind when projecting year to year results is how injury riddled we were last season. Just our 2 best players Trae and JJ only played 54 and 56 games respectively last season. That’s 1/3 of the season missed by the 2 players we deem untouchable. Then you add key players like OO and Dre who only played 55 & 57 games. Bey only played 63. 

If they were to play something like 70 games next year you would have to admit that adds a few more wins over the course of the season even without comparing additions subtractions. 5 more wins in an injury riddled season has us .500.

Lets remember, we defeated nearly every top contender at least once last season while being shorthanded. We defeated the NBA Champs twice in a week without our best player. This is not a locker toon devoid of talent or good coaching. We just couldn’t find any consistency with our lineups due to the injury bug. We had GMathews and Vit playing major minutes on a nightly basis. We only had (1) healthy PF available for a majority of games. Those are real issues that we played through that have nothing to due with locker room/coaching/lack of talent narratives. 

Now we when talk about the roster, new player fits, experience for young guys, etc… and it doesn’t seem that far fetched that our floor is actually much higher than where we finished last season. The biggest weakness on the court (defense) and analytically speaking (Trae-DJ pairing) have been addressed.

We will be a very tough out next season. Just wait. The talent gap in our division is not that big. The East will be distracted with Bos/Philly/NYK and we will fly under the radar to a top 6 record at worst.
 

 

 

I dunno, redd. I think if you gave this team Tatum, Brown, and prime Shaq they'd struggle to win a game.

[JeffS17]

I think we can “steal” a 6th seed this year.  It would not be surprising to see one of Dyson, OO, or Kobe taking a decent leap forward this year

[benhillboy]

“That’s why they play the games” as they say.

The first 2 months seem “soft” compared to the schedule ramping up in January.  I was set up for disappointment last season though when December seemed “soft” and they dropped the ball.  When you have a tough time with the Hornets in division the previous year you pretty much deserve the projection disrespect barring any major shakeup to add an All-NBA type or two.

Edited August 23 by benhillboy

[bird_dirt]

1 hour ago, Final_quest said:

Pretty fair take on the record.  I see us as a play in team unless some unexpected chemistry magic develops.  Trae as a top offensive engine.  Dyson will have to emerge quickly as a top 5 defender.  Risacher, Jalen, and Kobe would need to take some significant leaps.  

I don't think they have any plans to trade Bogi.  He brings way too many dimensions we need with shooting and secondary playmaking. 

I think people have had unrealistic expectations on what CC and Hunter can bring back in a trade for quite a while.  Needle mover?  Would need to attach some draft picks to one or both of them to get a true needle mover, but we have that option if an opportunity develops. 

 

[AHF]

5 hours ago, RedDawg#8 said:

One thing to keep in mind when projecting year to year results is how injury riddled we were last season. Just our 2 best players Trae and JJ only played 54 and 56 games respectively last season. That’s 1/3 of the season missed by the 2 players we deem untouchable. Then you add key players like OO and Dre who only played 55 & 57 games. Bey only played 63. 

If they were to play something like 70 games next year you would have to admit that adds a few more wins over the course of the season even without comparing additions subtractions. 5 more wins in an injury riddled season has us .500.

Lets remember, we defeated nearly every top contender at least once last season while being shorthanded. We defeated the NBA Champs twice in a week without our best player. This is not a locker toon devoid of talent or good coaching. We just couldn’t find any consistency with our lineups due to the injury bug. We had GMathews and Vit playing major minutes on a nightly basis. We only had (1) healthy PF available for a majority of games. Those are real issues that we played through that have nothing to due with locker room/coaching/lack of talent narratives. 

Now we when talk about the roster, new player fits, experience for young guys, etc… and it doesn’t seem that far fetched that our floor is actually much higher than where we finished last season. The biggest weakness on the court (defense) and analytically speaking (Trae-DJ pairing) have been addressed.

We will be a very tough out next season. Just wait. The talent gap in our division is not that big. The East will be distracted with Bos/Philly/NYK and we will fly under the radar to a top 6 record at worst.
 

 

 

Another thing to keep in mind is that this team is filled with players with significant injury histories.  In fact, we have fewer people in the top of our rotation that don't have significant injury histories than who do:

Don't:

Trae

CC

DD

 

Do:

JJ

Hunter

OO

Kobe

Bogi

Nance

 

I'm not even counting guys like Zeller and Gueye.  We should be expecting injuries to hit this roster which is why I'm encouraged by the better depth on this team as compared to last year where we were single spooled at the forward spots.   But if you are counting on everyone playing 70 games then I think that is a crazy optimistic way of approaching this roster and the number of red flag health risks that we have.

[macdaddy]

I don't think enough consideration is being given to how bad DJ/Bey/Hunter were as a group at the most important positions.  Individually they're stats look ok but just not enough impact on the game.  Add to that no backup PF and we were just weak 2-4.   Our most effective lineups all had Bogi in them.  

So having DD, Zacc, and Nance is big step in the right direction potentially.  Do i wish we had more proven talent?  Absolutely but I'm glad to be moving in the right direction at least. 

I guess i see DD/Bogi/Zacc/Hunter  >>>  DJ/Bogi/Hunter/Bey.   At least i'm hoping!