I really like this squad for 2024-25

[AHF]

13 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Dyson Daniels Defense...DDD.

 

 

These all at least communicate what they are trying to measure to me except for "Cost Per Block."  Huh?  No idea what that one is supposed to reflect.  (Obviously some of these would need more explanation like chaos score even if I think I get what that measure is seeking to communicate).

[JeffS17]

14 hours ago, AHF said:

Can't fully agree with you on what to expect from his corner 3's.  These are his %s by season:

2020-21 39.0%

2021-22 40.3%

2022-23 40.7%

2023-24 29.0%

 

One of these things is not like the others.  It was a brutal season for him but I think you would be smarter to bank on a rebound for his %s on that shot in his next full season.  The reason I'm not concerned about him going isn't that we couldn't use him but is all about the fact that he is going to be injured for most of the season.  We need to be competing this season and carrying someone who will be out for most of the year just doesn't make sense.  His metrics were strong coming off the bench in Atlanta which is his appropriate role for any team going forward.  When he gets back to being healthy, he will make a very useful rotation forward off the bench for some team.

40% is not even that good on corner threes.  And I think that's Bey's ceiling based on his shot mechanbics... so he's serviceable as a corner threat but also easily replaceable which is why is why I'm not upset about him being off the roster.  As a note, 40% from the corner would have been ~11th on our squad last year.

[AHF]

39 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

40% is not even that good on corner threes.  And I think that's Bey's ceiling based on his shot mechanbics... so he's serviceable as a corner threat but also easily replaceable which is why is why I'm not upset about him being off the roster.  As a note, 40% from the corner would have been ~11th on our squad last year.

Nobody is claiming he is a marksman but a consistent 40% on corner 3's is just fine for an energy forward off the bench.

29% is beyond abysmal.  

I expect that Daniels will move from a career sub-40% to a career 40%+ on his corner 3's this season as they have been his best 3pt shot by a country mile.  (He shot 36% from there as a rookie and last year he shot 40.8% on corner 3's and 25.5% on all other 3's.  It is the "all other" 3's that must significantly improve even though improvement on corner 3's is obviously welcome). 

If DD is a consistent 40% shooter over his career on corner 3's that will be fine because the 60% TS% on those shots (ignoring the rare FT) may not be great but it is right on par with the normal offense for the very best teams in the league so those are still good shots and often have the added benefit of helping to space the floor for other players.

[benhillboy]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

These all at least communicate what they are trying to measure to me except for "Cost Per Block."  Huh?  No idea what that one is supposed to reflect.  (Obviously some of these would need more explanation like chaos score even if I think I get what that measure is seeking to communicate).

I don’t know how they attribute his 2.5 Defensive on/off as a “D-.”  That’s great on its own for a reserve, let alone most of the other measurements where he graded out well.

[AHF]

41 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

I don’t know how they attribute his 2.5 Defensive on/off as a “D-.”  That’s great on its own for a reserve, let alone most of the other measurements where he graded out well.

Good catch.  I could see NO having been better when Murphy was on or something but generally a +2,5 should be strong for an on/off metric.  Not sure how that grades out to a D-.

[benhillboy]

6 hours ago, AHF said:

Good catch.  I could see NO having been better when Murphy was on or something but generally a +2,5 should be strong for an on/off metric.  Not sure how that grades out to a D-.

I’m interested in this “chaos score” as well.  It should be based on Peak Kawhi who casually ruined offensive sets by his damn self.  I can see that in Dyson’s tape where he’s combining on ball tenacity with full knowledge of what’s going on weak side in order to bait the attacking player into something stupid.

[JayBirdHawk]

Mmmmmmmmm....so no Bogi or CC or Dre starting?

 

 

[ATLHawks3]

 

10 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Mmmmmmmmm....so no Bogi or CC or Dre starting?

 

 

 

Koonin's credibility is in the mud. Whenever he does one of these interviews, he always says things that don't turn out to be the case.

[NBASupes]

10 hours ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Mmmmmmmmm....so no Bogi or CC or Dre starting?

 

 

I am not 100% in love with OO starting but I am 100% down with the rest. 

The bench should easily be the best in the NBA. 

Kobe

Bogi

Dre

Nance Jr. 

Capela 

 

This bench is literally a 25-30 win starting lineup but it's the BENCH! Yeah, as long as the starters aren't complete shit, this could easily be a 45+ win team with this year's depth 

[NBASupes]

I am really looking forward to seeing

Trae

Risacher at the 2

Daniels at the 3

JJ

OO

There is a chance this is a 15 win starting lineup if it fails but there is a chance this is a 40 win starting lineup, NEXT SEASON. Sure, we are years away from seeing the potential realized with this crew but we are close seeing how valuable fit, coaching, development, and clear role styles is. 

Trae can go back to Trae ball which we left the minute we traded for Murray. 

Daniels is perfect for the 5th option role with where he does a bit of everything like DMC did for us. 

Risacher is the perfect 3rd option short term. I believe there is legit 2nd option in his future. 

JJ is the a tremendous sidekick for Trae. 

OO has promise. Let's see what he will do now that he's clearly going to be our center for now. 

Edited August 31 by NBASupes

[RedDawg#8]

Steve Koonin is great at a lot of things. Making credible predictions about the team is not one of them.

Seems more likely we are very high ZR and DD and the FO had lunch conversations that if they started with the other young guys Trae would be the oldest starter. And then Koonin repeated this hypothetical out loud during an interview, which then became a headline.

I doubt Quin has his starters set in stone before we have scrimmaged 5 on 5 with all the new faces we brought in. I imagine he will open preseason with a veteran bunch and adjust based on performance and chemistry.

Long term, I am confident the vision is for Trae, DD,ZR, JJ, and OO to be our future, especially looking at contracts/upcoming extensions. My money is that doesn’t happen this season unless we are really underperforming otherwise.

[bird_dirt]

12 hours ago, NBASupes said:

I am really looking forward to seeing

Trae

Risacher at the 2

Daniels at the 3

JJ

OO

There is a chance this is a 15 win starting lineup if it fails but there is a chance this is a 40 win starting lineup, NEXT SEASON. Sure, we are years away from seeing the potential realized with this crew but we are close seeing how valuable fit, coaching, development, and clear role styles is. 

Trae can go back to Trae ball which we left the minute we traded for Murray. 

Daniels is perfect for the 5th option role with where he does a bit of everything like DMC did for us. 

Risacher is the perfect 3rd option short term. I believe there is legit 2nd option in his future. 

JJ is the a tremendous sidekick for Trae. 

OO has promise. Let's see what he will do now that he's clearly going to be our center for now. 

this is how it should be. I think by the end of the season we may see this, but I bet they start the season:

Trae

Bogi (but I hope DD gets to start early on)

Dre

JJ

CC (but I hope OO)

Quin seems like a guy who wants to see if the players can prove they should start before automatically giving them the starting position. 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

[AHF]

47 minutes ago, bird_dirt said:

this is how it should be. I think by the end of the season we may see this, but I bet they start the season:

Trae

Bogi (but I hope DD gets to start early on)

Dre

JJ

CC (but I hope OO)

Quin seems like a guy who wants to see if the players can prove they should start before automatically giving them the starting position. 

It should be that the best players start. Let them all compete and if Bogi isn’t the best SG then don’t start him.  But if he is then don’t bench him just because someone is younger.  Make the young man earn that starting job.  That goes for all positions but Bogi has stepped up ever since he got healthy and I feel like he most deserves to take on that starting role if ZR and DD don’t beat him out for it.  Minutes are going to be staggered all over the place so him starting doesn’t prevent him from being the lead during the 12 minutes a game when Trae is on the bench.

[marco102]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

It should be that the best players start. Let them all compete and if Bogi isn’t the best SG then don’t start him.  But if he is then don’t bench him just because someone is younger.  Make the young man earn that starting job.  That goes for all positions but Bogi has stepped up ever since he got healthy and I feel like he most deserves to take on that starting role if ZR and DD don’t beat him out for it.  Minutes are going to be staggered all over the place so him starting doesn’t prevent him from being the lead during the 12 minutes a game when Trae is on the bench.

I disagree with this a bit.  Put the best defender at the 2 or 3 regardless. Bogi is great off the bench last season and I'm okay with him staying in that role. I want more defense than anything in this starting line up.  We need a point of attack defender in the starting line up.  Trae can generally make the offense average during that time if it's DD.

[AHF]

5 hours ago, marco102 said:

I disagree with this a bit.  Put the best defender at the 2 or 3 regardless. Bogi is great off the bench last season and I'm okay with him staying in that role. I want more defense than anything in this starting line up.  We need a point of attack defender in the starting line up.  Trae can generally make the offense average during that time if it's DD.

It was starter Bogi that had us in the ECF after we had been starting defender Cam. It was Trae and Bogi together with the potent >+3 number last year.  If the team is better with DD or ZR starting then by all means do so.  But don’t force Bogi to come off the bench if the team is better with Trae and Bogi than it is with Trae and DD or ZR.  
 

It may well turn out we are best starting Bogi and DD at the wing spots which combines the best POA defender and the best scorer, creator, and floor spacer among our 4 candidates.

Let them compete.

[AtLaS]

I really love the depth that we have this season.  We should have a damn good bench no matter what. I am most worried about backup PG if Trae misses any time, but I guess you can't cover everything and we do have Bufkin who has significant upside.  

I'd love to have a Delon Wright or another reliable vet backup PG, but I'm sure it's not an easy sell to an FA to join a team as Trae's backup when we also have Bufkin who we want to play and develop.  Vet's who are still any good, want to play so I'm not going to kill the F.O. for this one yet.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

...I don't think or win/loss record will be worse than last year, but beyond that the offseason still feels 'incomplete'.