So what exactly is our identity coming into this season?

[AHF]

On 10/8/2024 at 8:54 AM, NBASupes said:

Trae and Bogi have proven to be extreme defensive liabilities together. Please no more Trae and Bogi outside of backup minutes against bench units where they either have offensive flaws or defensive flaws. 

 

On 10/8/2024 at 9:29 AM, JeffS17 said:

Agree with this specifically.

I think the above sentiments are crazy.  

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

 

Trae/Bogi net+3,  defrtg 114

DJ/Bogi net +1, defrg 114

Trae/DJ net -6, defrtg 121

 

 

Team Defensive Rating 119.4

Defensive Rating With Trae & Bogi:  114

Teams Net Rating:  -2.7

Net Rating With Trae & Bogi:  +3

But Trae and Bogi are the worst pairing ever and should never play together again except against not just only bench units but only bench units with offensive or defensive flaws.

I see zero evidence for the idea that the team performs worse on a net basis when Bogi and Trae play together.  

2 hours ago, REHawksFan said:

Obviously the numbers support this assertion.  My contention is the Hawks will be better overall with a primary lineup of Trae/DD/Zacc and then the backup lineup of Kobi/Bogi/Dre.  The starters are better and the bench is better, imo.  

But it's not like the Hawks are subbing 5 in and 5 out.  They all play together.  If Trae avgs 36 min and Bogi 30 min (last year's numbers) and even if you assume Kobi is playing (with Bogi) every minute that Trae sits, that's still just 12 minutes.  So Bogi and Trae would be on the court together for 18 min per game.  And Quin can probably work is to that it is even more if Kobi doesn't play the full 12 or something.  

@REHawksFan - I think your take is reasonable and fair.  The numbers do support the idea that they pair well together and it is obvious.  Looking for the team to put more emphasis on Trae / DD / Zacc to start the season isn't unreasonable.  We don't know what that looks like, how it performs, and how it compares against other lineups.  I'm not sold on the idea that Trae / Bogi / DD isn't the best option but this is something we can just wait and see how it plays out because I agree with  you that we will see different combinations at the wings with Trae and we will get real game data to make those evaluations.

[NBASupes]

41 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

I think the above sentiments are crazy.  

Team Defensive Rating 119.4

Defensive Rating With Trae & Bogi:  114

Teams Net Rating:  -2.7

Net Rating With Trae & Bogi:  +3

But Trae and Bogi are the worst pairing ever and should never play together again except against not just only bench units but only bench units with offensive or defensive flaws.

I see zero evidence for the idea that the team performs worse on a net basis when Bogi and Trae play together.  

@REHawksFan - I think your take is reasonable and fair.  The numbers do support the idea that they pair well together and it is obvious.  Looking for the team to put more emphasis on Trae / DD / Zacc to start the season isn't unreasonable.  We don't know what that looks like, how it performs, and how it compares against other lineups.  I'm not sold on the idea that Trae / Bogi / DD isn't the best option but this is something we can just wait and see how it plays out because I agree with  you that we will see different combinations at the wings with Trae and we will get real game data to make those evaluations.

My issue is defense with the two. Not offense. I don't know how many times I have to restate that.

[AHF]

9 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

My issue is defense with the two. Not offense. I don't know how many times I have to restate that.

Our defensive rating was 5 points better last year with Bogi and Trae playing together so I'm saying there isn't much to support the idea that we are worse as a team with them playing together.  

Net production is what matters the most.  Do you disagree with that?  We can be worse on defense if we are so much better on offense that the net result in better than the more defensively focused lineup.

Net results win games and championships.

[NBASupes]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Our defensive rating was 5 points better last year with Bogi and Trae playing together so I'm saying there isn't much to support the idea that we are worse as a team with them playing together.  

Net production is what matters the most.  Do you disagree with that?  We can be worse on defense if we are so much better on offense that the net result in better than the more defensively focused lineup.

Net results win games and championships.

I don't care. You know I watched every game. It was a terrible pairing and we had several pairings like Trae and Murray which were way worse. I can stomach it for 10 mins in a game at max but I hope to not see Trae and Bogi playing a ton of minutes together. 

 

Those numbers just don't matter to me. I've seen these guys together for over 300+ games. I don't need any more proof. I've seen enough 

Edited 9 hours ago by NBASupes

[JeffS17]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

Our defensive rating was 5 points better last year with Bogi and Trae playing together so I'm saying there isn't much to support the idea that we are worse as a team with them playing together.  

This should have you questioning your reliance on stats more than anything.  It’s not hard to see by watching them play that the pairing will not work versus good teams with good players on the floor.  They will get absolutely cooked versus any team game planning that back court pairing.  

[AHF]

Find me a season since Bogi has joined where the Hawks haven't outscored the opposition when Bogi and Trae are on the floor together.  I'll wait.

[JeffS17]

I think a lot of ppl fell in love with Trae+Bogi because they fit better than Trae+Murray and we didnt have depth at the wings last year but that does not mean that pairing should be rolled out for significant minutes with guys like Dyson and Kobe in the rotation

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, JeffS17 said:

I think a lot of ppl fell in love with Trae+Bogi because they fit better than Trae+Murray and we didnt have depth at the wings last year but that does not mean that pairing should be rolled out for significant minutes with guys like Dyson and Kobe in the rotation

So no season.  Got it.  The team has always outscored the opposition when Bogi and Trae play together.  We made the ECF with Bogi and Trae playing together.  Message received.

We don't want positive net ratings so stop what has worked for 4 years immediately.  Makes sense.

[JeffS17]

I'm talking about what we should do this year and you are just talking about the past.  I really don't understand why you'd want to roll out two defensive liabilities instead of having Trae pair with Dyson.  Dyson is the perfect back court pairing with Trae, he's who everyone has wanted since we drafted Trae.  Elite defender, great off ball skills, can dribble and play make, good basketball instincts.  Perfect pairing.  Bogi can overlap some minutes with Trae and that's fine but it should not be many minutes at all.  He should really be overlapping more with Dyson/JJ who can both ball handle and Kobe as well.  

[AHF]

Pretending like a great pair for 4 years won’t be effective this year is insane to me.  Trae has played well next to a floor spacer in his career.  Why would that not be the case this year?  
 

We have literally beat the opposition consistently whenever they play together for years on a team that has struggled hard for consistency.  Why would we stop playing a lineup with strong net performance?

Outscoring your opponent is the name of the game.  If you can explain why what has worked for years will suddenly stop working I’m willing to listen but I see zero reason to think this will be the case.  
 

Either way, we’ll start seeing trends a few weeks into the season.  I’m expecting that Trae and Bogi lineups are net positive.  
 

If you think they won’t be bey positive this year, please take me up on an avatar bet:

Trae / Bogi lineups net positive this season I win and pick your avatar for a month.

Trae / Bogi lineups are net neutral or net negative this season and you win and pick my avatar for a month.

Up for it?

[Gray Mule]

43 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

Net results win games and championships.

The big secret of winning?  Outscore your opponent.  Is this correct?  Or, is it too complicated?

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, Gray Mule said:

The big secret of winning?  Outscore your opponent.  Is this correct?  Or, is it too complicated?

You are correct, GM.  Not too complicated.

[macdaddy]

You put out the best players.  Right now Bogi is better than Zac or Hunter.  So i roll with Bogi and Dyson

I mean first there were supposedly no stats to support Trae/Bogi being good together and then when there were we suddenly don't care about stats.  

If Trae/Dyson/Hunter works then i'm all for it but if we're going by the eye test that's an offensively challenged group and everyone will get mad when Trae starts hogging the ball. 

Trae/Bogi/Dyson.  They don't have play 40 minutes together but it's our best chance not to go down 20-3 at the start of every game. 

[NBASupes]

54 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

You put out the best players.  Right now Bogi is better than Zac or Hunter.  So i roll with Bogi and Dyson

I mean first there were supposedly no stats to support Trae/Bogi being good together and then when there were we suddenly don't care about stats.  

If Trae/Dyson/Hunter works then i'm all for it but if we're going by the eye test that's an offensively challenged group and everyone will get mad when Trae starts hogging the ball. 

Trae/Bogi/Dyson.  They don't have play 40 minutes together but it's our best chance not to go down 20-3 at the start of every game. 

Bogi is not better than Dre or Risacher. Ya'll seem to forget that having size and defense actually matters in the NBA

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, macdaddy said:

our best chance not to go down 20-3 at the start of every game. 

This^. 

Awful last season having to battle back every game.

[RedDawg#8]

Its easier to play defense when the other team is inbounding the ball going 94 feet. It’s harder to play defense if you’re constantly in transition off of long misses.

There’s your explanation for why Trae and Bogi work and the numbers support it. Nobody believes Trae and Bogi are good 1 on 1 defenders, but when they make shots at a high clip other teams become less efficient going against set defense and trying to keep up. They will force more shots trying match pace. It’s a recipe that works and has worked, despite your best arguments against it.

Dre has never been as good of a player as Bogi. Dre has no elite skillset, whereas Bogi is an elite floor spacer. Dre is good on defense, not great, and not a difference maker. His defense is the same as Bogi’s passing/playmaking. It exists, it has moments, its not moving the needle. Dre’s ball handling is the same as Bogi’s defense. More often than not it will not go well but it can show up every now and then.

I am not losing sleep over Daniels vs Bogi. But I will damned if we give Dre any more credit then deserved in comparison to Bogi.

Dre has been a losing player for us. Every lineup he plays in performs worse. Doesn’t matter the coach or the scheme or the PG. He is not consistent enough to have the reputation he’s given.

[macdaddy]

53 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Bogi is not better than Dre or Risacher. Ya'll seem to forget that having size and defense actually matters in the NBA

Bogi is better than Zacc until he proves otherwise.  One preseason game doesn't do it.  I certainly expect him to be better though. 

Dre yeah.  At this point it's becoming a toss up until Dre proves he has consistent impact on this team.  I'm ready for it though. 

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, macdaddy said:

Bogi is better than Zacc until he proves otherwise.  One preseason game doesn't do it.  I certainly expect him to be better though. 

Dre yeah.  At this point it's becoming a toss up until Dre proves he has consistent impact on this team.  I'm ready for it though. 

There isn't an argument that the team is better with Dre on the floor than with Bogi.  All the data says the exact opposite - that the team is not just better but significantly better with Bogi on the floor than with Hunter.  Zacc is an unknown.  For me, Bogi gets the benefit of the doubt at this point but if supes thinks Zacc will be a star right out of the gate I'm here for it.  There isn't years of data on Zacc, and he has exciting upside along with a high floor.

[Final_quest]

Dre is OK, but if he’s so valuable why doesn’t anyone want to trade for him?  
 
We’re clearly trying to move on from Hunter.  29 other teams are showing they don’t value him.  

Been having this conversation for years.  No metric shows Hunter has impact.  No team wants him at his price.  

Numbers love Bogi.  Any other argument apart from data is qualitative and sounds like selling Hunter as magic beans.

[REHawksFan]

33 minutes ago, AHF said:

There isn't an argument that the team is better with Dre on the floor than with Bogi.  All the data says the exact opposite - that the team is not just better but significantly better with Bogi on the floor than with Hunter.  Zacc is an unknown.  For me, Bogi gets the benefit of the doubt at this point but if supes thinks Zacc will be a star right out of the gate I'm here for it.  There isn't years of data on Zacc, and he has exciting upside along with a high floor.

Isn't it true that the Hawks in general have been a positive with Bogi on the floor, regardless of who he's paired with?  In that vein, it seems very plausible to me that the best benefit to the Hawks is to figure out who best works with Trae and make that pairing featured.  I personally think DD works perfectly with Trae offensively and defensively.  And ZR also works with Trae better than DH does.  So to me, the combo of Trae, DD, and ZR is what maximizes Trae's minutes the most.  

Now, I recognize that this is all theoretical as we don't have any data with Trae, DD, and ZR yet.  But my point is we should start with that to see how it works and if it lives up to the expectations on paper and then if not, we can always sub Bogi in since we already know how that works.  

In the meantime, Bogi's minutes are still going to be a positive with whomever he's playing with.  It's not like Bogi's value is going to be mitigated if he isn't playing with Trae.  He'll just be enhancing the overall numbers of the bench units when he's not on the floor with Trae.  And like I said in another post, they are still going to be on the court together some, just maybe not starting the game and featured.  That's my take.