What’s our starting lineup for 24-25 season?

[KB21]

What I want to see is Dyson, Zaccharie, and Jalen get the majority of the minutes at 2-3, and I think Vit is going to be very hard to keep off the floor.  

[NBASupes]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

The highlighted part is BS.  It absolutely speaks to the impact of individual players over large sample sizes and is specifically used by teams and coaches to try to identify players and combinations that produce better results.  

But let's dig into individual stats for Hunter versus Bogi if you want because you are still playing pretend. Let's do it for the last 3 years since those are the only full season sets we have.  Underlining is the better individual stat.

PER

2021-22 Dre 10.6 < BB 15.4

2022-23 Dre 11.5 < BB 14.2 

2023-24 Dre 12.7 < BB 14.7 

 

Win Shares

2021-22 Dre 1.1 < BB 3.7

2022-23 Dre 2.5 < BB 2.8

2023-24 Dre 2.2 < BB 3.9

 

RAPTOR

2021-22 Dre -2.1 (negative) < BB +2.2

2022-23 Dre -2.1 (negative) < BB +2.5

2023-24 Dre -1.0 (negative) < BB +1.5

(2023-24 uses 2023-24 NBA Estimated RAPTOR Player Ratings (and other stats) (substack.com))

 

WAR

2021-22 Dre 0.5 < BB 5.0

2022-23 Dre 0.8 < BB 4.5

2023-24 Dre 1.4 < BB 5.4

(2023-24 uses 2023-24 NBA Estimated RAPTOR Player Ratings (and other stats) (substack.com))

 

BPM

2021-22 Dre -3.9 (negative) < BB +1.3

2022-23 Dre -3.3 (negative) < BB +0.5

2023-24 Dre -2.4 (negative) < BB +0.2

 

VORP

2021-22 Dre -0.8 (negative) < BB +1.5

2022-23 Dre -0.7 (negative) < BB +0.9

2023-24 Dre -0.2 (negative) < BB +1.4

 

I was being kind not using the individual metrics but thank you for highlighting just how wide that chasm is between them.

Also, the team would be much better defensively with Bogi / DD than they were last year.  Bogi is a huge improvement defensively over DM (this made Bogi look better defensively last year than he actually is but there is a reason the team was a full 5 points better defensively per 48 minutes when he was on the floor playing the SG role instead of DM) and Dyson would be an improvement over Hunter as well.  (Obviously Dyson is a better defender than Bogi but there is improvement at both the 2 and the 3 year over year if you run BB / DD and Bogi is much better offensively than DD and DH.)

I'm open to the idea that Risacher breaks out from day 1 and is worthy of being in the starting lineup in which case he pushes one of the others to the bench and either Dyson or Bogi comes off the bench.

BTW - My bet remains on the table to the extent you keep claiming that past production is not a useful predictor of future production.

This is all fine and dandy but there is a reason why one is always starting and the other has come off the bench more times than he's started for us. Because one is a big wing which are hard to find or were, they are becoming more common in 2024 than in 2022 and before. 

Hunter value to his coaches, scouts, and executives matter. Bogi value is purely offensive. Even for us. He doesn't offer much on D. 

[KB21]

21 minutes ago, KB21 said:

What I want to see is Dyson, Zaccharie, and Jalen get the majority of the minutes at 2-3, and I think Vit is going to be very hard to keep off the floor.  

Oops.  That should have said 2-4, not 2-3.

[AHF]

7 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

This is all fine and dandy but there is a reason why one is always starting and the other has come off the bench more times than he's started for us. Because one is a big wing which are hard to find or were, they are becoming more common in 2024 than in 2022 and before. 

Hunter value to his coaches, scouts, and executives matter. Bogi value is purely offensive. Even for us. He doesn't offer much on D. 

I'd say two factors kept Hunter in the starting lineup and Bogi on the bench:

(1) the team committed to DM being the starting SG and Bogi can't be your starting SF;

(2) the team single-spooled the SF position with only one player on the roster who was capable of playing that position.

On Bogi, clearly the bulk of his value is offensive.  That isn't a bad thing.  Trae has done well with a floor spacing SG next to him and the team has done very well with that.  The value of shooting at that position is the whole reason the position is name "shooting" guard.  Having that floor spacing guard is huge.

 

What has changed?

6'8'' Dyson and 6'9'' Risacher

 

We are no longer single spooled at the position.  I think there is a good chance Hunter begins the season in the starting lineup and is out of it pretty quickly ala Bey from last year.  He isn't our best option and I think that will show up pretty quickly that lineups with BB / DD / ZR at the 2/3 perform better but we'll see.

(Note that us not having viable options other than Hunter at SF should have inflated Hunter's +/- numbers.)

[NBASupes]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'd say two factors kept Hunter in the starting lineup and Bogi on the bench:

(1) the team committed to DM being the starting SG and Bogi can't be your starting SF;

(2) the team single-spooled the SF position with only one player on the roster who was capable of playing that position.

On Bogi, clearly the bulk of his value is offensive.  That isn't a bad thing.  Trae has done well with a floor spacing SG next to him and the team has done very well with that.  The value of shooting at that position is the whole reason the position is name "shooting" guard.  Having that floor spacing guard is huge.

 

What has changed?

6'8'' Dyson and 6'9'' Risacher

 

We are no longer single spooled at the position.  I think there is a good chance Hunter begins the season in the starting lineup and is out of it pretty quickly ala Bey from last year.  He isn't our best option and I think that will show up pretty quickly that lineups with BB / DD / ZR at the 2/3 perform better but we'll see.

(Note that us not having viable options other than Hunter at SF should have inflated Hunter's +/- numbers.)

I don't believe I've said I wanted Dre at any role other than 7th man this season. I've made it clear that I think Risacher is our 3rd best player and he needs to start with DD, JJ, and Trae. 

I agree with most of what you said. That said, Dre was always the best option at the 3 than Bogi starting wise. 

Edited October 10 by NBASupes

[AHF]

14 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Dre was always the best option at the 3 than Bogi starting wise. 

The team was much better with Bogi playing SG than they were with Hunter playing SF.  But I agree that Bogi should not have been starting over him at SF.  Bogi needs to be a 2, not a 3.  DD and ZR should be able to play minutes at both the 2 and the 3.

The 2023-24 Hawks would have been much better with Bogi starting at SG instead of DM.  With last year's roster, there was really no alternative to Dre at the SF spot.  

2023-24 Hawks

Trae / Bogi / Dre > DM / Bogi Dre >> Trae / DM / Dre 

 

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

The team was much better with Bogi playing SG than they were with Hunter playing SF.  But I agree that Bogi should not have been starting over him at SF.  Bogi needs to be a 2, not a 3.  DD and ZR should be able to play minutes at both the 2 and the 3.

The 2023-24 Hawks would have been much better with Bogi starting at SG instead of DM.  With last year's roster, there was really no alternative to Dre at the SF spot.  

2023-24 Hawks

Trae / Bogi / Dre > DM / Bogi Dre >> Trae / DM / Dre 

 

Idk about that. I've watched a lot of Hawks Basketball and outside of the ECF year. We always seem to lose when Hunter is out even if Bogi is starting considering only the years both players played for the Hawks 

Edited October 10 by NBASupes

[AHF]

2 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Idk about that. I've watched a lot of Hawks Basketball and outside of the ECF year. We always seem to lose when Hunter is out even if Bogi is starting considering only the years both players played for the Hawks 

Nothing supports this.  Look at the numbers I posted.  The team is only slightly worse when Hunter is off the court and several seasons has been better when he was off the court.

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, AHF said:

Nothing supports this.  Look at the numbers I posted.  The team is only slightly worse when Hunter is off the court and several seasons has been better when he was off the court.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=atlanta+hawks+record+without+de'andre+hunter+23-24

[JayBirdHawk]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

This is all fine and dandy but there is a reason why one is always starting and the other has come off the bench more times than he's started for us. Because one is a big wing which are hard to find or were, they are becoming more common in 2024 than in 2022 and before. 

Part of that is no other option or competition at SF since Hunter was drafted, so by default that role falls to Hunter.

[KB21]

Just now, JayBirdHawk said:

Part of that is no other option or competition at SF since Hunter was drafted, so by default that role falls to Hunter.

The thing with Hunter, to me, is that he isn't a good fit for Quin and what he wants to run.  He's not a quick decision maker with the ball in his hands.  Defensively, he's not quite as versatile as you would want.  He's not the "stopper" that they tried to make him into early on.  He defends bigger wings better than he does smaller wings.  He gets absolutely abused on the boards.  I think his playing time could dwindle to very little as the season progresses and we see Daniels, Risacher, and Krejci get the lion's share of the minutes.  

Vit Krejci - that dude is the poster child for what player development is all about.  

[AHF]

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=atlanta+hawks+record+without+de'andre+hunter+23-24

How the team performs when Hunter isn't available to play is a bit of a different question from how the team performs when he is off the court but all numbers support that the team was better last year when Hunter played.  It wasn't dramatic but the record was better with him than without him and the point differential was better when he was on the floor versus when he was off it. 

The difference in team record when available versus unavailable is SSS (40% winning % without Hunter; 33% winning % without Bogi) but the difference in point differential is over a large volume of minutes and the impact of Bogi's absence from the line-up was much more significant than Hunter's absence.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, KB21 said:

Vit Krejci - that dude is the poster child for what player development is all about.  

I'm fascinated to see what role Vit gets this year.

If you assume a 10 man rotation of Trae, Kobe, DD, Bogi, ZR, DH, JJ, LN, CC and OO that means that Vit is out of the rotation.  But he does seem like the poster child for making a huge leap in the second half last year.  I'm sure injuries will open some minutes but is Vit part of the rotation when healthy?  I just don't know.

[JayBirdHawk]

11 minutes ago, KB21 said:

The thing with Hunter, to me, is that he isn't a good fit for Quin and what he wants to run.  He's not a quick decision maker with the ball in his hands.  Defensively, he's not quite as versatile as you would want.  He's not the "stopper" that they tried to make him into early on.  He defends bigger wings better than he does smaller wings.  He gets absolutely abused on the boards.  I think his playing time could dwindle to very little as the season progresses and we see Daniels, Risacher, and Krejci get the lion's share of the minutes.  

 

This was my thought on Zacc pre-draft:

On 6/20/2024 at 11:23 AM, JayBirdHawk said:

I know there are concerns about Risacher's athletic testing at the combine, buuuuuuuuuuuut.........I think he still has functional in game NBA athleticism. What I like about him is the quickness with which he makes decisions with the ball and without, in constant motion - unlike someone like Hunter who has to catch the ball and diagnose before making a move. Those split-second decision making to see plays develop and taking it to the defense and not being reactionary makes a big difference.

.....I will say, that Hunter has shown improvement last year in wanting to play how Quin wants/expects him to play with relative quickness to his decision making. He struggled to hit wide open shots in the first preseason game but he was willingly moving the ball.

[JayBirdHawk]

22 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'm fascinated to see what role Vit gets this year.

If you assume a 10 man rotation of Trae, Kobe, DD, Bogi, ZR, DH, JJ, LN, CC and OO that means that Vit is out of the rotation.  But he does seem like the poster child for making a huge leap in the second half last year.  I'm sure injuries will open some minutes but is Vit part of the rotation when healthy?  I just don't know.

I think we'll see that we have a mix-n-match set of ball handling SGs (Kobe, Bogi and Vit) to go along with the long defensive ball handing wings (Dys, Zacc and Vit).

It may play out in some games where we see more of one than others depending on first half performances of Kobe, Zacc, Dys and Vit. And the usual injury bugaboo in a long season. 

(Please, Hawks stay healthy )

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, AHF said:

How the team performs when Hunter isn't available to play is a bit of a different question from how the team performs when he is off the court but all numbers support that the team was better last year when Hunter played.  It wasn't dramatic but the record was better with him than without him and the point differential was better when he was on the floor versus when he was off it. 

The difference in team record when available versus unavailable is SSS (40% winning % without Hunter; 33% winning % without Bogi) but the difference in point differential is over a large volume of minutes and the impact of Bogi's absence from the line-up was much more significant than Hunter's absence.

1-2 without Bogi is our record last year so while saying 33% is cool, its being facetious. He simply didn't miss much time last year but previous years he did and the record was still better without him than Dre. 

[NBASupes]

One of those loses without Bogi was a game no one for the Hawks with experience played but Dre against Boston and we were up when Dre came out of the game in the 1st half. 

[AHF]

13 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

1-2 without Bogi is our record last year so while saying 33% is cool, its being facetious. He simply didn't miss much time last year but previous years he did and the record was still better without him than Dre. 

10-15 doesn't mean much either.  It is all SSS.  Thousands of minutes and hundreds of games tell a bigger story.  Looking at whether we outscore our opponents when he is on the floor versus whether we do when he isn't is the largest sample size we have for any of this.  And it is pretty telling how little difference there has been considering there has been very little depth behind him.

[NBASupes]

10 minutes ago, AHF said:

10-15 doesn't mean much either.  It is all SSS.  Thousands of minutes and hundreds of games tell a bigger story.  Looking at whether we outscore our opponents when he is on the floor versus whether we do when he isn't is the largest sample size we have for any of this.  And it is pretty telling how little difference there has been considering there has been very little depth behind him.

Not buying that reasoning, watched too many games over the years. Without Dre last year, it was either get hot shooting or we would get dominated. All you have to do is look at the box scores. We couldn't guard a fly in those losses too. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, NBASupes said:

Not buying that reasoning, watched too many games over the years. Without Dre last year, it was either get hot shooting or we would get dominated. All you have to do is look at the box scores. We couldn't guard a fly in those losses too. 

Last year we literally didn't have a small forward on the team other than Dre and we still were only 3.9% better on the season (43.9%) than we were without him.  Now that we have alternatives, we will be in a much better position when he doesn't play.