Wondering About BK's Draft Strategy

[clrumph]

Before I begin, I do want to say that I think that BK has done a good job as GM since he took over and I'm glad that Babcock is no longer calling the shots. However, I am beginning to realize that BK's two drafts have not been without their mistakes in judgement. Whenever BK is questioned about what he looks for in a draft prospect, he pretty much always says that he like players who are versatile and who can play multiple positions on the floor. This is why he drafted Diaw in the 1st round last year and Childress with our top 1st round pick this year. Diaw can play the PG, SG, and SF positions, while Childress can play the SG, SF, and possibly PG in a pinch. These players seem to fit BK's draft philosophy to a T.

What I am beginning to notice about these two players is that, while they can play multiple positions on the floor, they are not potentially great or even above average at any one position. In Diaw's case since he was the 21st pick in a relatively weak 2003 draft I am not going to be as critical, even though it turns out that ACC player of the year Josh Howard would have been a much better pick as he slid down to the 29th slot. Childress is a whole different story, because when you are picking in the top 6 you have to get a very good player and possibly a superstar if you are lucky (see Paul Pierce going 10th). Yes, I know it's still early, but the comparisons of Childress to DeMarr Johnson are beginning to stick, except that Childress is no where near as athletic as DeMarr was before his car accident.

After we failed to trade for Dwight Howard I personally wanted us to get Josh Smith with the 6th pick and either Kirk Snyder of J.R. Smith with the 17th pick, whichever one was still available. I think we lucked out that Josh Smith was still there for us at 17, but by taking Childress at 6 we had already picked our future SG and we took a big risk that Josh wouldn't already be gone before our next pick.

J.R. Smith and Kirk Snyder are true SG's, while Childress is a converted SF trying to play SG in the pros. Usually that either doesn't work out (see Jason Terry as he struggled mightily to become a true PG even though I liked him as a player here), or it takes a hell of a long time for the conversion to finally happen. Meanwhile, J.R. Smith is lighting it up from long-range in New Orleans averaging over 16ppg in the preseason, and Kirk Snyder is also doing well in Utah. As a matter of fact, Snyder greatly outperformed Childress in their head to head summer league meeting (Childress looked really soft compared to Snyder). Childress looks like he will be a decent pro, but I think J.R. Smith has the potential to be a superstar with his athletic ability and his long range jump shot, and I believe Snyder will be a better overall SG that Childress will be throughout their careers.

I think BK may have made a big mistake by drafting a couple of versatile kids who really haven't shown that they have a true position in the NBA. Hopefully in next year's draft we will draft a kid who plays one position well in one of our greatest areas of need. I would love to have either Chris Paul at PG or Randolph Morris at C. Of course they can only play one position well so BK may not be interested. I hope he proves me wrong in next year's draft and that Childress does pan out, because every time I read J. R. Smith's boxscore I don't feel so good!

(By the way, I also posted this on RealGM under the name HawksFanFromDecatur, which was my screen name before we drafted Josh Smith)

[emeans]

Very good analysis and post.

I revisit the draft in my head all the time too. Did we get the right person at 6. Everytime I see Deng (doing well in pre-season) slamming in a Bulls uniform I start questioning the Childress pick.

Josh Smith at 17 was a steal anyway you look at it. He has the tools to be a superstar, he is just too young right now.

Everytime I see Childress shoot that unorthodox shot up for a miss I question this pick. However I have to remember that he is still a rookie and it will take time. But when I see other rookies that are producing right now like J.R. and Snyder again it brings me back around to the 6 pick. With the lack of shooters on this roster, evident by last nights shooting...J.R. would have been a very nice pick for this team.

We had our options and we decided to go with Childress. Now can Childress live up to the 6 pick??? It's early and I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Packfill]

I can understand the decision to go with Childress over Deng, particularly now that we have Walker and Harrington and Smith. Deng is a small forward, plain and simple. With a Harrington and Walker in front of him Deng would get no burn this year and in the long run Smith may be better then Deng and could be a nice pair with Harrington.

If you are going to be critical of the 6 pick, the only other option would have Igoudala. We will see though, I am not going to give up on Childress yet.

As for J.R. Smith, he would only have made sense as the 17 pick, at which point you have to decide if you like J.R. better then Josh. That is a tough call, J.R. is probably more ready to contribute but Smith has some Rasheed Wallace like upside as a versatile front court player.

[Blunt91]

I think if Josh SMith wasn't available at 17 we would have took J.R. Smith at that position.

[clrumph]

If you are going to be critical of the 6 pick, the only other option would have Igoudala. We will see though, I am not going to give up on Childress yet.

As for J.R. Smith, he would only have made sense as the 17 pick, at which point you have to decide if you like J.R. better then Josh. That is a tough call, J.R. is probably more ready to contribute but Smith has some Rasheed Wallace like upside as a versatile front court player.

Remember what I said, I wanted either J.R. Smith or Snyder at the 17th pick, whichever one was left, and J.R. was still available. I also said that I would have taken Josh Smith at 6 because I think he has the potential to be better than any other player in that draft except for maybe Dwight Howard and Shaun Livingston. Therefore my draft picks would have been Josh Smith at 6 and J. R. Smith at 17. Now granted, I do like the fact that we took Josh over J.R. at 17, but my ideal would have been to have both of the Smiths. I don't care that other GM's didn't have Josh rated in the top 10 after his workouts, I still thought that he was a top 10 talent before the draft. Luckily he lasted until the 17th pick so that we could still grab him. On the other hand I wasn't so sure about Childress being a top 10 talent before the draft and we picked him with the 6th pick! Now that I've seen him play a few times my opinion has not changed at all. Look, I'm not giving up Childress, I just think BK could have hit a home run with both of the Smith boys. Time will tell, but I think would have been better off with the combo of Josh / J.R. instead of Childress / Josh Smith.

[emeans]

Actually Josh Childress was originally not a Top 10 pick. He was rated around the 12 to 16 pick. His stock rose in the weeks before the draft tremendously. It rose even more possibly to the Hawks the week before the draft. So Childress didn't start out as a Top 10 pick. He did well in some workouts and interviews and his stock rose.

On the other hand Smith at one point was rated right behind Howard. His stock dropped because of his attitude.

Childress may workout well and warrant that 6 pick. Time will tell!!

[Gray Mule]

Attitude. Some are good and some are bad.

We hear a lot about team chemestry. A good attitude

will be a big plus here and a bad one a minus.

I believe that B.K. tried to find players with all the things that he mentioned, size, versatility, etc.

I also believe that attitude was a big contributing factor also.

I have to believe that he chose players who he thought would

be capable of listening and learning as opposed to those

who believed they already knew everything, not saying that

any of the players in the draft were that bad, but the

potential had to be there in some of them.

So many are down on our first pick. They think he may

end up being anything from just an O.K. player to a

complete failure. This judgement coming before the

Hawks have played one regular season game.

Give the kid a chance to prove himself.

You have to ask -- Does he practice hard? Does he listen

to the coaches? Did all that ability he showed before

the draft mean anything? Can he really be a failure after

playing three pre-season games?

We must remember, everything about the Hawks is new.

Coaches, players -- everything.

I still believe. Until proven wrong, I will continue

to believe. We ain't there yet, but we're gaining on it!

Go Hawks !!

[Diesel]

I still believe we should have burned a few second rounders to get Jameer Nelson. I am happy with J-Smooth and J-Chill. I think you have to admit that BK was honest with his mold. He wanted Long, atheletic, versatile, defensive players and that's what we now have. He also wanted a guy who can coach a transition, defensive style. That's what we have.

Now the question that arises is Loyalty.... Not Hawk Loyalty but other players.

Immediately, I see that there are some interesting FAs to come out of Detroit...

Elden Campbell, Ben Wallace, and TayShun Prince are all due to come out of Detroit in the next 3 years. What if one or all of those guys are on our radar. What if Ben Wallace wants to leave Detroit and play for US?

The Point is that we have a team that is molded to run and play defense. It tells you who will stay and who will go... But in the meantime, we have the money to get FAs who want to come this way.