Bogut or Paul?????

[unknownjdb]

Wretch - I'm glad I'm not the only one that has worries about Bogut. I'm sure he'll do well, I just don't see him as the savior, like a lot on this board do. Same goes for Paul. I haven't seen anything too impressive when watching him.

I really believe that D.Williams will turn out to be the best pick in this draft, this is why I am hoping we work something out to either trade down or somehow get multiple draft picks. Then again, we could continue on with our horrible luck in the draft and end up with the third or fourth pick, in which I'd have NO problem drafting D.Will.

Vafan - Harrington, Diaw & our 31st for Maggette & their 1st This would only happen if they have an early enough draft pick to get D.Will.

Does this sound better. Reasons why the Clippers would do this trade: They have the PG pretty much set, either resigning Jaric (who's restricted) or count on Livingston. At PF they have Brand and at C they have Wilcox. Currently at SF they have Simmons, who as GF can slide over to SG. Add Harrington in at SF and Diaw, as we know, can backup PG, SG & SF. With some good scouting the Clippers could get a steal or project with the 31st pick. Then they can go shopping for a better C in Free Agency (good luck).

The Clippers would have:

Jaric / Livingston

Simmons / 31st pick / Ross

Harrington / Diaw

Brand / Wilcox

Kaman / N'diaye

[unknownjdb]

I like this one better.

"With the first pick in the 2005 NBA Draft, the Atlanta Hawks select... Andrew Bogut from the University of Utah"

"Before we get to the second pick of the 2005 NBA Draft, I have a trade to announce. The Charlotte Bobcats trade their second and fifteenth picks to the Atlanta Hawks for the rights to Andrew Bogut."

"With the second pick of the 2005 NBA Draft, the Atlanta Hawks select... Deron Williams from the University of Illinois"

"With the fifteenth pick in the 2005 NBA Draft, the Atlanta Hawks select... Channing Frye from the University of Arizona"

It's Perfect! Done deal. Do it!

[Guest Walter]

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But that is Paul's problem. 2 or 3 more inches and he'd be the favorite for #1 hands down.

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First, I disagree. If Paul let opposing Pgs walk all over his defense like they do now it wouldn't matter how tall he was. The guy is a HORRIBLE defender at the college level. The steals don't tell the story. In the NBA he will HAVE to be able to stop SOMEBODY not just play passing lanes.

Second, if Bogut blocked 1 more shot per game it wouldn't matter. It's unfortunate and somewhat amazing people can't accept just how poor of a defender Paul is despite his modest steal numbers and just how good of a defender Bogut is despite his modest shot blocking numbers. Facts are Bogut can learn to block more shots (when he doesn't have to play tentative in order to remain on the floor as Utah's ONLY legitimate threat). Paul can't learn to be taller than 6'.

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I question Utah's schedule like everyone else, but mostly, I question Bogut against NBA competition.

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Really now. This guy is more proven than any player in this draft. He's proven internationally at the junior level leading his team to the world title, earning the world's MVP, he's proven (at age 19) in the Olympics avg. 15/8, getting 11/8 against Duncan, 9/5 at half-time, and he's proven at the college level leading an otherwise hapless Utah team to the sweet 16 (Paul, ehem, couldn't). Your "questioning" is not scientific. No one else is as proven as he is. No one else in this draft has even faced up to an NBA player, much less held his own against an NBA MVP. If you question Bogut's being tested then you d@mn well better question everyon else more. Right?

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I know he can get his way looking over these guys in the NCAA, but night in and night out against Duncans, Garnetts, Okafors, Yao's, Shaqs, Gasols...

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Let's say I grant you that. We "don't know" about Bogut. The difference is I do know about Paul. He plays his worst basketball against point guards taller than 6'. He can't defend them or score on them. In the pros it only gets worse. The over 6' Pgs (and they are most of them) are quicker, faster, better. Hell, the top 5 Pgs (Nash, Marbury, Kidd, Wade, Iverson) in the NBA average 6'3". Point being, even if I conceed (which I don't) that Bogut won't be Okafor (are you kidding?...he's 6'9" and with worse numbers across the board as a Soph.) or Gasol (snicker, come-on man!?!), Paul can't defend college much less pro players PERIOD, and plays his poorest basketball against players the height of almost every NBA Pg.

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Big guys, like Bogut...who are faster, can jump higher, and are stronger. Offensively, I'm not concerned about him. On the glass and on the defensive end...? He'll have to show me on the NBA level.

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Nonsense. How? Do we draft him after he's become a top NBA 5 center within 5 years?!? On the other hand Paul has proven he CAN'T score on or defend 6'+ college Pgs. What more proof do you need that he can't do it against bigger, faster, stronger, taller NBA points? Again, in this hypothetical...Do we draft Paul knowing he can't (guard or score) or Bogut unsure whether he can (defend)?

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Again, I'm just not sold on him. He's an intriguing offensive prospect for me...but I am not sold on the total package like some.

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I've statistiacally demonstrated how Bogut is a better defender than Paul when looking at how they impacted players relative to those player's season averages. Observing them both would tell you the same. SO, if you are going to call Bogut an "intriguing OFFENSIVE prospect" I insist you refer to Paul as a "less intruiging OFFENSIVE prospect with considerably weaker defense as measured by FG% and PPG against Paul relative to for the season".

You can't have it both ways here. You back-hand Bogut a complement meant to insult his defense and then say we should draft Paul over him?????????? Do you not agree that Paul is a worse if not MUCH worse defender? Do you not agree that his size disadvantage will not be further exploited at the NBA level where he will be 5" shorter than the average height of the top 5 Pgs whereas Bogut will be at or above average height for the top 5 centers?

You talk about Bogut's 'D' but you do not address the facts. You fail to talk at all about Paul's 'D', perhaps because there is none or perhaps because you realize that it's worse, far worse than Boguts. Here's your chance. Prove to us all that Paul is the better defender since that is your hang-up with Bogut. Feel free to use my analysis. Break it down how you like, but as Judy says, "don't pee on my leg and tell me it's rainin'". No more, "Bogut's defense I'm not so sure about"..."Paul's defense, uhm,... (crickets)".

W

[Guest Walter]

I disagree with you on Bogut, but agree on Deron. He may turn out to be the best player in this draft. His defensive performances against Garcia, Stoudamire, and McCants were stellar.

I'm this close (finger pads almost touching) to suggesting we trade a future first unprotected for the rights to Deron. If it takes Diaw or Al Harrington and that first (now top 3 or 5 protected) I'm thinking about it also. I think Bogut and Deron are the two best, also smartest players in this draft.

W

[Guest Walter]

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I disagree with you on Bogut, but agree on Deron. He may turn out to be the best player in this draft. His defensive performances against Garcia, Stoudamire, and McCants were stellar.

I'm this close (finger pads almost touching) to suggesting we trade a future first unprotected for the rights to Deron. If it takes Diaw or Al Harrington and that first (now top 3 or 8 protected) I'm thinking about it also. I think Bogut and Deron are the two best, also smartest players in this draft.

W

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[KBatPCSOM]

You can't determine a player's defense by looking at what the guy he may be guarding is scoring. That isn't how the game works. You can't look at stats and determine when the team was in a zone defense or in a man to man defense. It tells you nothing about playing on the ball or playing the passing lanes.

You know the saying. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

It is a fact that Chris Paul played his best against the best teams. He averaged around 24 ppg and 7 apg against North Carolina and Duke. This is a player that has proven that he can play the roll of scorer as well as the role of distributor for his offense. He is a playmaker.

Andrew Bogut is a player that did not impress me when I saw him play against Kentucky. That's the only game I've seen him play in, but I didn't come away thinking that this guy is a #1 overall pick.

Personaly, if I were making the pick, I'd take Marvin Williams because he has more potential than any other player out there.

[cyman3]

"Jesse (Hampton): If the hawks got the #1 pick in the draft who would you want them to draft?

Josh Smith: Either the Bogut kid from Utah or the Deron Williams kid from Illinois."

- from HAWKS.COM, josh smith chat transcript

[Nicholasp27]

lol@kid

they are both older than him

[pathway23]

lol I thought that was funny too!

I think Smoove has been scouting pretty well

[Guest Walter]

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You can't determine a player's defense by looking at what the guy he may be guarding is scoring. That isn't how the game works.

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Uh, yeah you can. If the opposing player consistently scores more and consistently shoots significantly better against you than for the season, that MUST say something. This was an approximately 15 game sample.

Example? I can look at Garcia's, Salim's, and McCant's stat lines and know that Deron shut them down. It helped to see the games to know just how dominant he was defensively, but I can look at the stats and KNOW that he shut those players down. Remember, we pretty much know Paul is going to be guarding the other team's shortest player. He can't do otherwise.

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You can't look at stats and determine when the team was in a zone defense or in a man to man defense.

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I am a Wake fan (when they are not playing SEC). I watched enough to justify this statistical assessment. Let me be clear here. I like Paul. I enjoy watching his game. It's creative. It's also hard not to like a short guy playing well. However, he just does not project TOP PICK-well to the pros.

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It tells you nothing about playing on the ball or playing the passing lanes.

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Paul can defend passing lanes. Unfortunately, he can't stop ANY BODY in college much less in the NBA, so why pass? The pro game is isolation and the two man game. Paul will get KILLED in isolation! KILLED! In the two man game he can't defend an entry pass or much else.

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You know the saying. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

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Yeah, it's right up there with "the numbers don't lie" Again, you can't offer anything besides cliched deconstruction. Anything to suggest Paul is a good defender? Perhaps a quote from another player highlighting Paul's ability to stop them? Anything! ANYTHING! A-N-Y-T-H-I-N-G!!!

I did the statistical analysis in question without having an idea about how it would come out. I predetermined the list of Pgs (everyone in ACC), considered Paul to have most often defended the shorter player where there were similar heights at the opposing guard positions (i.e Miami), and let the stats speak for themselves. They say a hell of alot more about Paul than you have in this post. All you've said is how you don't believe statistics.

Fact is, as a med student you should know better KB. Good statistical analysis is what evidenced based medical practice is all about. Without it you would be left with anecdotal "evidence" and no science can be based upon that.

You wouldn't call the statistics about the effectiveness of a treatment lies unless the methods were poor. Even then, unless you knew a better means of researching said effectiveness, you'd have to accept the findings to some degree. I stand by my methods. I've seen enough of Wake to know how little they played zone. Unless you have better methods through which to make a significant objective finding, don't blame the fact that you don't like the results on science!

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Andrew Bogut is a player that did not impress me when I saw him play against Kentucky. That's the only game I've seen him play in, but I didn't come away thinking that this guy is a #1 overall pick.

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Let's see...the Chris Paul equivalent would be:

1) a team throwing three, 6'4" Pgs at Paul (avg. college center height 6'9" verses UK's 7'1" avg. frontline...avg. college Pg height being 6'...add 4")

Note: the one time Paul did play against a 6'4" Pg, Marty Collins torched Paul for 25 points and 5 assists.

2) those Pgs only being intent upon being physical with and defending Paul

3) Paul having no one else on his team of ANY merit

...and yet Paul would still have to get his averages including his modest PPG average. Do you see this happening? I don't.

I wish you had seen the Oklahoma game or simply could buy into a great resume at the age of 20.

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Personaly, if I were making the pick, I'd take Marvin Williams because he has more potential than any other player out there.

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I'm just not there with Marvin. He was the 6th best HSer last year behind Wright. He still doesn't project at any one position well. More importantly, the last three games I've NEVER seen a guy dissappear more, or in the championship game, drop more basketballs. It was embarassing to watch. He looked like Hendu out there.

W

[Guest Walter]

[Wretch]

Well, I know you have a hardon for Bogut...but I'm sorry, I don't. I like his offensive game. I like his passing, his shot from outside, and he has shown the ability to get to the basket.

On the boards, I like the way he scraps. He's active and he uses his length well. He's reaching over people for boards and he's getting decent position. But the question isn't whether or not he can do this against 6'8" 230lbs NCAA F/Cs from USAF, Montana Western, and New Mexico. It is whether he'll be able to do this in the NBA night in and night out against 2 or 3 NBA sized guys who can go for a double double on any given night. I like his chances offensively, I'm not sold on what he can do on the other end.

More importantly though...

You can get off of the whole "what's so great about Paul" tirade, because THE SAME GOES FOR HIM. I'm sure he can wisp buy some guys, make some plays, or make the shot...but his height puts him at a disadvantage night in and night out defensively. That's a big part of the whole point of bringing up his size and generally understood when you're talking about size disadvantage in the NBA.

So get your teeth out of my ass about that. Secondly, I'm not completely sold on Paul either...but if it's him vs. Bogut and we're comparing what I feel are weaknesses, then I'd rather have a liability on the outside (against a team's primary playmaker no less) than the on inside against the league's best high percentage scorers.

Bogut has proven himself offensively to me. But, one game against Duncan says nothing to me...neither does a 1000 games in international competition where the bigs are taking just as many 3s as the 2 guards. Yes, he led Utah to 2 wins against a #11 seed and a decent game against Ok...but it was his passing more than anything that got them through; the commentators couldn't stop talking about it. That's what I saw. Utah ran set after set with Bogut out high and he picked OK apart. I was QUITE impressed.

I did not however, see him own the paint or shut anybody down. I saw a smart player using his length to keep the ball alive and using his size to get position. At the NBA level, where bigger guys, with better post moves, can jump MUCH higher night in and night out, for longer games, over a longer schedule...I'm not sold.

I know your hard-on for Bogut, distaste for Paul, and your stone resolve to see anything but the walls around the tunnel that you follow Walt, so I'm not going to ping-pong this with you. I like Bogut. I like his offensive game and his passing. I like his size and his tenacity. I like his intelligence on the court. I don't think he's been tested or proven against anything close to what he'll see in the NBA. But offensively, I like his chances. Defensively and on the glass, I have questions.

It's that simple.

[unknownjdb]

That's an awesome idea, though I'd up the ante and send BOTH Joshes to shake the new crews hand. It would be one heck of a publicity stunt.

[Guest Walter]

At realGM we had a poster come over who had watched Boogut and Utah all year long. He commented upon how Bogut was asked to stay out of foul trouble at all costs. Allowing an occassional two wasn't as important to Utah as him being on the floor. Then, towards the end of the game when he didn't have foul trouble he was let loose by the coaching staff (and his own basketball IQ). That's when he showed his most aggressive play and got the majority of his shot blocks.

It's unfortunate that we didn't all get to see that or the rest of Bogut's season. We didn't. Still, I find the notion that we should consider Paul over Bogut blind about what is in plain sight.

With what we don't know about Bogut (what level of NBA defender is he despite holding quality opposing centers to 3.8 fewer PPG, 3.8 fewer RPG, and 9% lower FG%?) and do about Paul (He isn't a very good scorer and is a horrible defender, both particularly against Pgs taller than 6'), I'd wager on the possibility that Bogut can rather than accept the fact that Paul can't be of impact on both ends of the floor.

Another way to put it...if you have the same questions about Paul as you do about Bogut (should be greater IMHO as Bogut at age 20 can get better in every category, Paul won't be getting taller AND Paul is a proven WORSE defender and not as able scorer as Bogut), you draft big over small, real big over REAL small.

W

[RAHMOR]

I agree with that logic. If we do get the #1 pick I think we have to get Bogut. Based on what is said about him in scouting reports, his size I just don't see anyone knocking him out of the #1 spot. If we get anythings other than the # pick and Bogut is gone that's another story. Also if we have the top pick and Bogut is available the only combination of picks I would trade down for is Deron and Frye and an impact FA. Any other trade is IMO in unacceptable.

[Weez]

nice analysis of why that wouldn't work. it sounds plausible at first glance...and then it's broken down and you're completely right.

[TheDude]

"Big guys, like Bogut...who are faster, can jump higher, and are stronger. Offensively, I'm not concerned about him. On the glass and on the defensive end...? He'll have to show me on the NBA level."

IMHO i think that Bogut has the footwork and fundamentals to play good post defense, which honestly the key to good post defense. Noone is just going to bowl over him due to his size, even if he isn't the most athletic guy. I actually think his defense is going to be pretty darn good.

And he also has the desire.

[Weez]

nice post. good breakdown.

[deester11]

Well, according to the Deseret News in Utah, the Jazz brass is infatuated with Bogut...except the owner. Larry Miller is his name I think and he says

"I like him. I have no ax to grind with him. But let me tell you what my complaints about him are. It's really one: I think in tough situations, he disappears."

To back his stance on Bogut, Miller critiqued some of the Wooden and Naismith awards winner's play during the Utes' 2004-05 season.

"You look earlier in the season," he told 1280, "once (Mountain West Conference) league play had started, in my mind's eye, I'm seeing three or four games in a row where teams figured out they could double- or triple-(team) him.

"I think what I saw, from watching, was that he manifested he didn't like getting hit. He didn't like being down in the paint, getting physical contact in different places, and really had a few games . . . where he didn't perform very well."

I don't know if I buy all the negative things. The NBA is certainly different and workouts leading to the draft will be important. One minute I want Paul, then I want Bogut, then I want D. Williams. I really don't think I'd be upset with either of the three. At least Babcock isn't around to scare us.

[Wretch]

He's 7' and 240+lbs and he's tough. I don't think too many guys are going to just muscle him out of the way. BUT, what I am concerned about is his lift. Bogut has been playing against guys 4-5 inches shorter and some even 20lbs lighter. NONE of these guys have a prayer at making the NBA - especially not the NBA PF/C spot. But this is who Bogut has been terrorizing during the season. And the way he's doing it is what concerns me.

I didn't see a guy going up strong and crashing the boards. I saw Bogut getting position, reaching out with his long arms, scrapping, and hopping a little to get boards - using his length. This as opposed to a PF/C who goes up and swallows rebounds with authority is what concerns me.

The better PFs and Cs in the league will be taking right to Bogut. They will body up against him and go UP with him for boards. Will he be able to use his length like he does at the college level against these guys? That is my question.