Trying to sum this all up

[Guest Walter]

Of the two, Bogut consistently better defends HIS MAN. Opposing quality centers 6'9" or taller score 3.8 fewer PPG, grab a whopping 3.8 fewer RPG, that’s 50% fewer rebounds against Bogut than for the season, and shoot a 9% lower FG%.

ACC Pgs scored 3.4 MORE PPG and shot 8% better against Paul for the season. The "draftable" opposing pgs in which both players played 25 or more MPG including Dee Brown, Stoudamire, Marty Collins, Ewing, Felton, Jack averaged 4.7 MORE PPG, a 15.6% higher FG%, and 1.8 fewer APG than Paul.

That's where you HAVE to start when assessing defense. You must be able to guard your position. If you cannot guard your own man then it hardly matters whatever else you do on defense. Paul cannot guard college Pgs. It will get worse in the NBA when Pgs 4"-8" (rather than 2-4”) taller than him will run isolations and two man games against him. Defense at the Pg position is of the utmost importance because the opposing pg (unless you have Kobe) will possess the ball more than any other player and is the one most capable of beating defensive help with the pass.

Fortunately, Bogut can guard his own man. He does so very well, almost bottling up their ability to get to the boards and altering and/or making them either take bad shots as evidenced by their almost 10% reduced shooting % against him relative to for the season. He may end up being a good help defender as well. He has the height, the length, desire, the B-ball IQ, big/good hands, and since big men generally develop later, more potential physically and talent-wise to develop. He definitely won’t be caught out of the position needed to make help defensive plays.

The important things are this:

1) You MUST be able to consistently guard your own man; Bogut can, Paul can’t.

2) The defensive specialty of post help defense can come from the center, Pf, or both positions.

3) 5’10” players can only defend one position.

Thus, Bogut can guard his man and at least contribute to help defense. His vast array of attributes, talents, skills, etc. suggesting finding a complementary Pf will be relatively easy. Moreover, his desire, height, length, youth (especially for a big man), positioning, B-ball IQ, good/big hands suggest he will be a surprisingly good help defender.

Paul can’t guard his position consistently. There is no one that can cover for him because he can’t guard any other position. Perimeter “help” defense is a misnomer, particularly at the Pg position, particularly given the frequency of clear-out, isolation plays and the two man game in the NBA, and the opposing Pg is the one player you don’t want dribbling past the top of the key with the ball, as his job is to make you pay for that in a variety of ways.

The saying goes, “play the position you can guard”, however, if you are 5’10” and you can’t guard the pg position, there is no where else to go but the bench. Not saying Paul would get the bench, but unless you like the opposing Pgs going off on you and many 115-103 loses, this guy isn’t the man for you.

Note: I seriously believe Lue (23rd overall pick in ’98) is a lot like Paul. His defense (2 SPG in college) looks busy but simply isn’t good. Why not resign our own FA in Lue and get us a Pg prospect, who can defend his position, either by trading up this year or waiting a year? No one player in this draft is going to keep us out of the lottery next year. With a mid to late lottery pick we can still get a top Pg prospect (but not a top center prospect).

W

[TheDude]

if we wanted Paul, we would have drafted Jameer Nelson last year. Ok, I know I'm exaggerating. I think Paul is a special talent at point guard. But I do not think we should bypass Bogut for him. I think both will be really good in the NBA but I prefer getting the jump on the big man with point guard bball IQ. The number one pick should get you not only the best talent in the pool, but also a player who has something really special or unique. And that's Bogut's passing, basketbaal IQ and fundamentals.

one thing I'd like to envision with a Bogut center. His long wingspan makes a guard change his shot, then promptly getting it swatted into the 5th row by Smith.

I think just the more I think about it, I realize just good a fit Bogut is to our team as far as centers go.

[Guest Walter]

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one thing I'd like to envision with a Bogut center. His long wingspan makes a guard change his shot, then promptly getting it swatted into the 5th row by Smith.

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Exactly, we have our weak-side help defender.

& I don't think you are exaggerating much...His Jr. year JN got .2 more SPG, 5 more PPG, and was a FAR better overall defender. He's also stronger without the short arms.

There are 3-4 of these caliber or better Pgs every year and history has shown that on many occassions they can be had with a mid first rd pick. Sigh.

W

[Packfill]

We should probably wait until after the draft lottery to spill each others blood over who will be the better pick.

I think if the Hawks get the first pick, then Bogut makes the most sense. If the Hawks end up with the second or third pick, then Paul or Deron Williams make the most sense.

[Guest Walter]

I'm just not sold on Marvin over Deron. He was the 6th best HSer last year and I just don't see this draft as so weak he is higher than Bogut or Deron. His lack of a true position, our team needs, and his gutter ball performances in his last three games also impact my impression.

Still, I lean towards him over Paul and Martynas, but honestly, all that could change.

The top pick status is Bogut's to lose. The second pick is anybody's to win.

W

[Guest Walter]

Then based upon my analysis summed up at the top of this thread, just how much worse of a perimeter defender is Chris Paul?

Somebody in the "anti-Bogut" camp please face up to the fact that against quality (8PPG or more) centers 6'9" or taller Bogut reduced opposing center scoring by 3.8 PPG, rebounds 50% to 3.8 RPG, and FG% by 9%. You don't do this consistently over 9 games without being a good interior defender. Everyone can have a less than stellar game, but when you average this you are a good interior defender, PERIOD.

SOMEBODY in the "anit-Bogut" camp have some courage to face these stats head on. Anyone? It's one thing to bring up one or two games where a Sg-sized "power" forward scored alot against Utah, but it's another to FACE THE FACTS!

W

[Sage11]

Walter you make some good points. I am waiting on Diesel response also. He has said that Bogut is not the answer in the middle yet he has failed to show how or why Bogut is not the answer. (the lateral movement argument is weak at best) I think that having him will help us considerably. Although I am not overwhelmed with this years draft prospects I think that Bogut is about as sure as you are going to get in 2005. Trading down in a dilluted draft makes little sense to me. We have bodies already--- what we need is talent.

[Guest Walter]

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Walter you make some good points. I am waiting on Diesel response also. He has said that Bogut is not the answer in the middle yet he has failed to show how or why Bogut is not the answer. (the lateral movement argument is weak at best) I think that having him will help us considerably. Although I am not overwhelmed with this years draft prospects I think that Bogut is about as sure as you are going to get in 2005. Trading down in a dilluted draft makes little sense to me. We have bodies already--- what we need is talent.

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Awaiting it also. Highlighting selective, single-game offensive performances against Utah by 6'5" "power forwards" to "discredit" Bogut's overall performance is desperate.

I agree with all your points: 1) diluted draft, 2) Bogut is the best of those available, 3) trading down isn't prudent.

The later I especially do not understand. Let's control our own draft destiny here and best fill at least one needed position. For all its flaws, this draft has good people at our positions of need and no more likely superstar at another position to suggest picking otherwise.

W

[thescout10]

I am going to let this thing play out.It is good to argue about who is better for the hawks but until BK gets Paul,bogut,williams etc etc in to see what they have and where the hawks draft I am laying low.This is a draft where there will be no superstar more than likely but a draft made up of some solid very good players.The questions we all have should be settled when BK brings in the players for predraft workouts.

[Diesel]

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Then based upon my analysis summed up at the top of this thread, just how much worse of a perimeter defender is Chris Paul?

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I don't give a damn about Chris Paul's Perimeter defense. I would rather have Deron Williams because he fits our model...

But how simple are you. You try to build a case for Bogut's defense by pulling down Paul's defense??

Why are you so anti-Paul??

I think Both guys will be good offensive players. But I question Bogut's interior defense and I question Paul's Post defense.

[Guest Walter]

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But I question Bogut's interior defense

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The same relative concern about Bogut (lateral quickness) Deron Williams is said to suffer from.

From NBAdraft.net...

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Speed is an issue as

he’s not the quickest player on the court

… His thick body type can be much a weakness as a plus as

it limits his mobility

...

Lacks great open court speed and a quick first step

... Relies on strength and overall body size too much…

Defending quicker players will be a problem

...A good defender, but

will has lateral foot speed be an issue?

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Simply put...

It is disingenuous to say you question Bogut's interior defense based upon a perceived lack of lateral quickness and not question Deron's perimeter defense the same. In otherwords, your position lacks internal consistency.

An example of internal consistency? I "question" both player's lateral quickness equally relative to their positional requirements, but unlike you I don't extend that negatively to one player and not another. I think it will impact both players equally relative to their position. I also think it will impact both players minimally. That's why they are my #1 and #2 picks in this draft.

I hope you become sophisticated enough to realize BOTH have significant many attributes to overcome any perceived lack of quickness. Bogut is tall, long, with big/hands, a high B-ball IQ, desire, aggressiveness, great positioning, from today's report of him as a Sf he is still growing into and developing his body, is only 2 years into the US game, at the young age of 20 and at the later-developing interior positions will only get better, develop more, and become more familiar with the US game. Deron similarly has a high B-ball IQ. Offensively he's not the player Bogut is (& given both offense and defense are half the game this issue can't be decided on one side of the ball alone), but he has great strength at the Pg position, good height, a coach's game, and will (but remember he's a junior with one more year experience and appears more capped out in terms of potential).

...

Bogut consistently shuts down opposing quality (8 PPG or more) centers (6'9" or taller - the minimum center height he will see in the NBA) as evidenced by their AVERAGING 3.8 fewer PPG, 3.8 FEWER RPG, and 9% lower FG%! This is fact.

Your criticism of Bogut insists upon:

1) avoiding and ignoring the immediately above facts

2) countering them indirectly in seperate posts with selective, single-game nonsense about Sg-sized college players, beating Utah's Pfs in a round-about attempt to criticize Bogut's interior defense by association

3) internal inconsistency when it comes to believing a perceived lack of lateral quickness will significantly affect Bogut but not Deron on the next level

Consistency first, accuracy later.

W

[Guest Walter]

Will they be good help defenders at the next level?

First, both players can guard their own man. I've seen Bogut once and I've compiled statistics on how quality opposing centers fair poorly against Bogut across the board. While I have no statistics on Deron, I've seen more of his games including the last three where he was put on and shut down the other team's best offensive perimeter player.

The question remains whether their perceived relative lack of lateral quickness will make either or both of them poor help defenders at the next level (and how important is that given the rest of their games?)?

For perimeter players the only way of guaging help defense is their number of steals. This helps display the amount of and ability to play passing lanes. Deron averaged 1 SPG. That's is very low for a quality perimeter player.

Guaging interior help defense is more difficult to assess. However, blocked shots and defensive rebounds reflect most interior defense. Bogut averaged 1.9 BPG. I consider this slightly better for an interior player than 1 SPG for a perimeter player. 12.2 RPG is very good, 2nd in the nation. I don't know where his 8.7 defensive rebounds a game ranks, but it's higher than most players average for a rebound total.

There is always some trade off. Rarely can you be a great defender of your own man and a great help defender (see Josh Smith, who often leaves and gets burned by his man trying and often succeeding in making the great help play). Both Deron and Bogut are perceived to lack lateral quickness. Both have a remarkable many other attributes with which to compensate. Both utilize these attributes well and make for very good defenders, albeit not pure shot blockers or steals leaders.

W

[Diesel]

Walt, I can tell you never watched Williams Play. You seem to rely a lot of what NBADRAFT is telling you. I've seen Williams play and who do you think was responsible for shutting down all those other PGs in the NCAA Tourney and regular Season? With the Lack of a dominant Big Man, why do you think Illinois was 36-1 on the season?

Secondly, a PG doesn't need Lateral quickness to be a good defensive player. You ever watch Jason Kidd? How about Mark Jackson? I think Williams will be similar to Jackson.

But again Walt...

You try to defend Bogut by attacking my choice.. It's ridiculous... If your house cannot stand, don't try to knock mine down?!

Do this.

Just admit to yourself that Bogut is a bad interior defender and then suggest ways to make up for it in personnell that we can get. i would respect that from you much more than you running around make believing that Bogut has NO faults...

[Diesel]

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First, both players can guard their own man.

I've seen Bogut once

and I've compiled statistics on how quality opposing centers fair poorly against Bogut across the board.

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So in other words, you have been Kissing Bogut's Ass and Hugging his NUTS based on 1 freakin Game? You have only seen him play ONE time?

Dude... You believe that he is flawless because of 1 showing?

Which game was it... Let me guess. It was the Oklahoma game right?

Damn Walt.

I thought you had watched him play at least as many times as I had.

You built up a strong opinion of Bogut based on 1 game!

And you got Weez and Nick over here kissing your nuts because you are the one game wonder!

This is really some funny stuff.

ONE game wonder and his wonderfriends and his pile of stats sets out to prove that Bogut is a SURE thing!

Wonderful.

[Nicholasp27]

i've been posting about bogut long before walt ever joined in on the conversation

"when u can't win an argument with logic and facts, resort to 3rd grade insults"

[Diesel]

You're Right Nick..

My bad..

It wasn't you..

I thought you were the one that wrote:

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can I just restate that I'm ecstatic to have Walter back on the board, providing in-depth analysis (whether you agree with him or not). thanksfor that.

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But when you think about the whole 1 game thing.... it makes this funny.

In either case, it's not me resorting to 3rd grade insults... How can you win an argument against a man who has only seen Bogut play 1 time.

I mean, that's like you being a food critic and have only gone out to eat 1 time. Then trying to justify your "expert" opinion on what other people say about the restaurant.

That's like you calling yourself an expert engineer after being in one Physics class.

[JTFan31]

No Matter what Diesel says, he will not convince me, that we should select Deron or Paul over Bogut.

Bogut is a 7 foot center, that dominated college basketball. 20 ppg and 12 rpg, is dominating, especially when he faced double and even triple team night after night.

We never had a big man with that kind of ability, to pass the ball so well out of double teams and that is exactly what Bogut can do, he can also set high screens and shoot the long jumper. I mean this guy is just so versatile......he has great work ethic and great post moves down low and he can take it out on the perimeter just as well.

Had we kept Pryz, then definitely I would go with Deron or Paul, but since we didnt, and we still need a center and PG. The clear choice is Bogut, is so hard to come up with a big man with that kind of abilities at 20 years old

[Diesel]

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Bogut is a 7 foot center, that dominated college basketball. 20 ppg and 12 rpg, is dominating, especially when he faced double and even triple team night after night.

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I have a cousin who played for "Atlanta Area Tech" as a SG. He averaged 27/6/8...He was double and triple teamed too.

I guess he dominated College Basketball as well?

Him and EMU's own Derrick Dial should have been the next MJ's...

You guys kill me with this talk of dominating college basketball... You ever look at Utah's schedule?

[Nicholasp27]

he still put up 20/10 against ur team and their 3-headed monster

he still put up 20/10 against uk

he still lead scrubs to the sweet 16

he still did well against arizona, etc

he still won mvp in international play at a young age

he still was top 5 in 4+ categories in the olympics

he still matched duncan pt/pt reb/reb getting 14/8

remember, chill was the top rebounder in the pac10 last year as a sf and that translated over to the 4th best rookie rebounder, even as sg...

okafor was shady offensively and is doing fine...no reason to not believe bogut can't do it as well....

players that dominated hs have come out and been stars

players that dominated college have come out and been stars

some haven't, but u have to go on their record, and bogut has a better resume than most, with college and international and olympic play

[Guest Walter]

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Walt, I can tell you never watched Williams Play. You seem to rely a lot of what NBADRAFT is telling you.

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Please be real here, diesel. Just because your position lacks internal consistency doesn't mean you have to accuse me of lying. I saw Deron play against Wake early in the year and his last three games all in their entirety. I watched snipets of two other Illinois games.

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Secondly, a PG doesn't need Lateral quickness to be a good defensive player.

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You apparently don't read. Like I said BOTH Deron and Bogut are good defenders at their position. Their are questions about either's lateral quickness affecting their help defense or passing lane defense, but these are two players you don't seriously question that about due to all their other attributes.

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You try to defend Bogut by attacking my choice...

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I didn't attack them. I compared them (more than contrasted them). I think they have the same perceived weakness and both possess enough other attributes to overcome any such weakness.

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If your house cannot stand, don't try to knock mine down?!

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Then why have you NEVER spoken about Deron but posted against Bogut 1000000000000000000000000000000000 times?!? You ONLY post against Bogut, not for Deron. Hypocrite is best spelled "D-i-e-s-e-l"

...and on and on and on and on...Diesel can't credibly respond. No mention of WHY Bogut isn't a good defender (but the equally lacking lateral quickness relative to position Deron is). Internal consistency! Try it on Diesel.

W