How do you feel about the lottery?

[Nicholasp27]

yeah

and i'm gonna be in class so can't watch it live

i'm just gonna have to look online to see it all at once...i enjoyed seeing it go one by one down the line last year

anyway, i don't think we will know exactly who we are picking after tonite...we aren't 100% sure on who bk would pick #1...and if we get 2/3/4, we don't know about trading up, or who the teams above us will pick

we won't know anything really, after tonite, but we will be able to better discuss options and have a better grasp on who we are likely to pick

then we get workouts

and then....

the DRAFT!

[Final_quest]

The one thing we will know tonight is draft order, which teams are picking 1-2-3. That tells us something, right? Maybe not.

[Diesel]

I'm going to tell you right now how much of a shot NY has tonight...

3.5%....

The question is when Stern says...

"NY has moved up"....

Will you start to believe?

When Stern Say...

The third pick goes to Atlanta...

Will you start to see what I've been telling you all along.

When Stern says...

NY gets the first pick...

Will your mind start to wonder...

WHy do we even have a lottery in the first place? All a lottery does is punish teams for being bad... I mean dang. Since 1985 only 4 teams with the worst record have ever gotten the top pick .

[Wretch]

You're right, we won't know exactly who we'll be picking. If we get the top pick, we're so needy we could take either of the top 3 candidates.

But certain teams aren't as needy as us and certain teams you know have to be targeting certain guys. I think Charlotte is looking real hard at Marvin Williams and Utah is looking at Bogut or Paul.

So no not exactly, but yeah we'll have a very good idea of who we're going to get or if we'll be making a deal.

Personally, I want no lower than the #2.

[Nicholasp27]

no, i still won't believe it's rigged

i refuse to let one incident that has a mathematical probability associated with it as proof of anything...it takes a MUCH larger sample to be scientifically viable evidence

and u'd only expect 4 or 5 teams to get #1 with the worst record in those 20 years...thus the 25% chance...

[Diesel]

Yeah...

25% chance...

But how many times will teams with >10% chance have won it?

You would think that they'd win it less than >10% of the time right?

Check your numbers

[AHF]

Quote:

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Yeah...

25% chance...

But how many times will teams with >10% chance have won it?

You would think that they'd win it less than >10% of the time right?

Check your numbers

---

If you mean

Here are the odds out of 1000:

Atlanta 250

New Orleans 178

Charlotte 177

Utah 119

Portland 88

Milwaukee 63

Toronto 36

New York 35

Golden State 14

L.A. Lakers 14

Orlando 8

L.A. Clippers 7

Cleveland 6

Minnesota 5

That means that all teams other than Utah, Char, NO & Atl have

You would therefore expect a team with a

[Nicholasp27]

it's one thing to be ignorant about stats...but it's another to continually argue with people who aren't...at some point diesel needs to either learn statistical theory or defer to those who do...

[Nicholasp27]

interesting that nobody said #4, even tho that is our most likely destination...

good to see we are all optimistic about our chances

[AHF]

Quote:

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interesting that nobody said #4, even tho that is our most likely destination...

good to see we are all optimistic about our chances

---

How is that our most likely destination, isn't our most likely destination one of the top 3 picks? Even if our odds of getting the 2nd pick did not increase after we missed out on the 1st pick, there is only a 75% chance we would not get each pick. That would mean only a 42% chance of not getting any of the top 3 picks. Add in the increased odds of getting 2 & 3 and our odds of not getting one of the top three would fall even lower.

For example, if the lottery went:

#1 pick = 75% chance Hawks don't get it

75% chance Hawks don't get 1 pick

#1 pick goes to Toronto

#2 pick = 74% chance the Hawks don't get it

55.5% chance Hawks don't get either 1 or 2 pick

#2 pick goes to Charlotte

#3 pick = 68.2% chance Hawks don't get it

37.8% chance Hawks don't gets any of the top 3 picks

[Nicholasp27]

u just answered ur own question

37.8% chance that we get #4

that is > than the chance of getting 1, 2, OR 3

the poll is to choose between 1,2,3 or 4...not 1-3 or 4...

the odds of getting #4 are greater than the odds of getting #1, the odds of getting #2, and the odds of getting #3

thus the "safest" choice on the poll is #4...but people are optimistic...which is a good thing

[AHF]

I gotcha of the individual slots #4 is the most likely.

I am definitely optimistic and am really hoping for one of the top two picks.